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One and done? The idea is “maximum optionality”

The Fed raised 0.25%.  They have one goal — to bring inflation down to 2%. That means cutting jobs. And then some.

To get to 2%, the Fed needs to make us suffer. More rate hikes.

Personally I don’t think 2% is realistic. Maybe 3.5%. Maybe 4%.

The press grilled Powell on his plans. He said nothing in a thousand creative ways.

A Bloomberg talking head called it “maximum optionality.”

The market liked how Powell gave vagueness a whole new meaning. And stocks like Nvidia, Meta, Google, Apple, Super Micro Computer (SMCI), Amazon, Trade Desk, and Axcelis Technologies are flying today.

My treasuries have been coming due. I’ve been moving more and more into tech. I’ve nibbled at energy — LNG — and biotech — MRNA, NVO and LLY. I even own a bank — JPM — and infrastructure plays — CAT and MYRG. But it’s hard to get enthusiastic about all of these when I see the AI momentum driving tech and today’s super earnings beat at META.

Life is more predictable on the tennis court.

Good luck, Florida

This letter is from the Tampa Bay Times of today, July 27, 2023

Dear Florida. I am ending my 63-year relationship with you. I sold my condo and won’t be back. The world is, literally, on fire and our children are being robbed of their future. The environmental devastation your beautiful state will increasingly experience is evident, but your governor is instead going after your LGBTQ+ neighbors and changing history in an effort to score points. So, in addition to roasting in the heat, your children will be badly educated.

Good luck maintaining your homeowners insurance. Good luck with your coral reefs; they do matter. Good luck with the coming storms and droughts. Good luck with that crazy man at Mar-a-Lago. But please remember: You have choices, and smart people are trying to save us from our years of inaction on climate change. Together we can have hope and find solutions. Divided and manipulated by culture wars, we all go down.

I can’t put this book down

Hydration is key. Drink water. Lots of it.

So is heat. High heat is even worse. Your body boils. Your organs are destroyed.

Heat is not a pretty picture. They put heated people in body bags filled with ice.

July was our hottest month. August will be even hotter.

Phoenix anyone?

Our food supply is threatened. Our cities are being flooded. Weather patterns are upended. Scientists are depressed.

This is not a depressing book. It tells an important story.

I can’t put it down. Buy your copy here.

When they say the economy is moving to “services?”

Do they mean this?

Fun stuff

It’s seriously bad when…

  …your seven year old grandson (Peter) starts beating you (i.e. me) at Chess.


Notice how nutritious the food I’m feeding him is.

And this brilliant marketing:

I’m trying a lighter tennis racket. I don’t think that is the solution.

50 years younger is the solution.

I’m trying a new look on the emails of this blog.

See you soon. — Harry Newton