The long-term looks great. Productivity is up. Technology is booming, especially AI. Everyone is living longer. More people own shares than ever.
But the short-term? Yuch. Two major brutal wars. Horrible uncertainty in the middle east. More rate hikes coming, says Powell maybe. Nobody has a clue what China is doing — business or technology — least of all China. (NYTimes headlined “U.S. Companies Flustered by china’s Contradictions.“) The bloom has gone off the AI “love” boom Nvidia is slipping and suddenly, nobody wants EVs — electric vehicles — likes Teslas, despite price cuts. But the technology of AI, or Nvidia’s chips and software are strong. And Tesla’s car make huge sense — especially as gas soars. I’m not selling my TSLA or NVDA.
Russia has detained another U.S. journalist. (Heh, guys, Russia doesn’t want you. What don’t you understand?) Obamacare, Medicare or unemployment insurance doesn’t pay you to languish solitary in a fowl Russian jail.
It’s now red. Every stock I own is in the red today! (I wrote this bit last Friday.) And has been so all last week.
Optimism (or stupidity) abounds. A talking head on Bloomberg asked “Is investment sentiment bad enough to buy the dip?” Another talking head said “The stage is set for a 14% S&P 500 rally by year end.“
But three big money managers — Leon Cooperman, John Hussman and Jeremy Grantham — think that’s it for now. Equities are way overvalued, and dropping.
Go figure.
This entire year looks fine. We’re still up. This is Nasdaq compared with the VGT and the S&P 500;
But the last ten days have been gruesome:
For two of our favorites — Tesla and Nvidia –it’s been really gruesome. Google, Microsoft and Amazon are holding up.
This time I’m not selling Nvidia or Tesla. But I’m not buying more. Tesla’s financials were yuchy.
I snagged some more six month treasuries at just under 6%. That’s far better than I’ll come out earning on equities this year.
What’s truly amazing is how banks are still getting away with paying nothing on their deposits. Hint: Check all your bank accounts and move them into something paying at least 5% — like the sweep Fidelity SPAXX.
Israel and the Middle East are a gigantic a mess
Hard to predict — except it’s now likely to include us and Iran in an expanded shooting war. Now it’ s expanded to Lebanon:
Hamas (with help from Iran and Qatar) has played it brilliantly. Hamas’ atrocities and kidnappings have elicited an extreme response from Israel, turning world sympathy away from it and major sympathy towards the Palestinians. Lots of awful facts: Hamas used its aid money to build tunnels and rockets, but not hospitals or schools. (not one of them is one statistic I read.)
Netanyahu has been a disaster for Israel. Every major publication — from the New York Times to the New Yorker — says he should go.
Background: Netanyahu wants to keep out of jail on corruption charges. Hence he joins together with really bad people to form his coalition.. His attempts to get rid of Israel’s Supreme are truly disgusting — without the Supreme Court, the Ultra Orthodox can stay out of the army and the settlers can steal as much land as they want.
Thomas Friedman in the NYTimes has been the most vocal. Read his last several pieces.
The Atlantic just ran a piece:
The End of Netanyahu
He sold Israelis a story about their safety. It turned out not to be true.
Click here.
Vertigo/Dizziness health stuff
I had a dizziness/vertigo attack last week. Frightening. My wonderful doc , Jerry Clements, classed it as labyrinthitis — inflammation of part of the inner ear called the labyrinth. It calmed down and I was able to fly. Coincidentally the New Yorker came out with a piece:
Why Dizziness Is Still a Mystery
Balance disorders like vertigo can be devastating for patients—but they’re often invisible to the doctors who treat them.
Read the Atlantic piece here.
My daughter-in-law had vertigo — her inner ear crystals shifted. She solved it with exercises called the Epley Maneuver:
JetBlue Mint Class is great
Mint is what JetBlue calls business class. Lie-flat seats. Excellent lie-flat mechanism. Counter space to put things. Wireless charging for my iPhone. Two places to plug my laptop into. Two excellent lights. And super food — especially the lasagna, the croissants, the berries, and the yogurt. I’m hooked.
This past weekend I flew JetBlue from Boston to Amsterdam to visit grandkids on their school vacation. Here’s a price comparison for a round-trip fare: JetBlue $4,886. Delta $8,735.
My comfy JetBlue Mint seat:
The secret life of Jimmy Zhong,
He stole – and lost – more than $3 billion. A wonderful story from CNBC Investigations. Click here.
I’ve never owned crypto, like bitcoin. But I love reading all the cry[to news. The Sam Bankman-Fried trial is engrossing.
Rare photo of Sam wearing a tie:
Microsoft is getting more and more sneaky
It upgraded one of my Windows 10 laptop to Windows 11 — without my permission.
Windows 11 now seems to be running apps that it previously said it wouldn’t and couldn’t. Customers apparently complained.
Remember our motto: Check. Check. Check.
I don’t like Wi 11. My son, Michael does. Be wary.
They just don’t make movies like they used to
The title is truly wonderful. Don’t watch the movie. It’s truly awful.
Wonderful cartoons
I’m on pins and needles. I don’t Israel should invade Gaza. But they have some neat technology to mess up tunnels, find weaponry and root out Hamas (and other terrorists). But it will be hard. Causalities will be huge on both sides. They’re fighting a genius called Muhammad Deif. Read about him in this Economist piece:
Read the Economist’s piece. Click here.
They’re opening the Lebanon front. It breaks my heart. When I was in Lebanon in 1967, it was “Paris on the Mediterranean.’ A paradise. But Iran (through Hezbollah) and others managed to screw it up big-time.
Iran strives to be king-pin of the Middle East and is fearful of deals like Saudi cozying up to Israel. Right now, Iran, is basically occupying four Arab capitals – Baghdad, Beirut, Damascus, and Sana’a (Yemen).
Columbia County, mid-New York State, is my paradise — though Amsterdam and two grandchildren, a son and a daughter-in-law is pretty good.
Check out how AI (artificial Intelligence) is working new wonders with your iPhone and Google’s search engine. Chrome is stunning. Ai is creeping in beautifully. Tech earnings are out this week. They should be good.
I promise. I won’t wait another week to get back to you. Thanks for your patience and notes of concern. — Harry Newton
