Friday, there was Walmart and United Health. Bad reports.
Then there was Trump and Elon and all those firings. Some senseless. Some not. Who knows?
The DOGE web site — www.doge.gov — provides little help for you and I to understand the mayhem DOGE is creating. If they fire 100,000 Federal workers at say an average cost of $125,000 a year, that will save us $12.5 billion, which is 0.185% of the $6.75 trillion the Feds spends each year.
But the psychology is hurting. On Friday morning the Consumer Sentiment Index dropped significantly — falling to 64.7 in February from 71.7 in January. The decline stemmed from rising concerns about inflation … and especially the price of eggs.
This was last week on Nasdaq. Friday was gruesome. My worst day in months. Most depressing.
But we’d had big drops before and come back. Here’s a one year view:
Nvidia reports Wednesday night. Earnings, sales and forecast. Should be good.
Good enough for those of us with forecasts much above where it closed on Friday — $134.43?
I’m optimistic. I’m still holding — which I’m hoping does not give masochism a while new meaning.
Warren Buffett Annual Report 2024
The note to his shareholders is here. His performance remains sterling. Look at the last few years and the incredible summary:
His words remain wise and folksy:
“I’ve also had many pleasant surprises in both the potential of the business as well as
the ability and fidelity of the manager. And our experience is that a single winning decision can
make a breathtaking difference over time. (Think GEICO as a business decision, Ajit Jain as a
managerial decision and my luck in finding Charlie Munger as a one-of-a-kind partner, personal
advisor and steadfast friend.) Mistakes fade away; winners can forever blossom. …
The American process has not always been pretty – our country has forever had many
scoundrels and promoters who seek to take advantage of those who mistakenly trust them with
their savings. But even with such malfeasance – which remains in full force today – and also
much deployment of capital that eventually floundered because of brutal competition or
disruptive innovation, the savings of Americans has delivered a quantity and quality of output
beyond the dreams of any colonist.
From a base of only four million people – and despite a brutal internal war early on,
pitting one American against another – America changed the world in the blink of a celestial eye.
Had I, Harry Newton, put all the money I got from selling our business in 1997 into shares of Berkshire Hathaway, I would be at least 41 times richer.
But who knew?
Fortunately I do own Berkshire stock.
Apple iPhone 16 dumb button
Apple replaced the “Ringer Off” slide with a many functions button. It drove me nuts. Every time I wanted to grab an image off my phone’s screen, I’d turn the ringer off. My phone never rang.
Solution: Go to Settings, Action Button and scroll right to this brilliant solution:
I love nature and animals.
This happens tonight. Plonk your kids in front of the TV and marvel. This is a small preview. I’m a total nut for animals and scenery. This should be totally wonderful.
America innovates constantly
And that’s part of our charm. Remember Scotch tape? Look what I just spied in our local CVS? 3M is having fun.
Getting old sucks
Susan’s just had a new knee and is in pain. I’ve just had big teeth surgery and I’m in semi-pain. Friends are suffering from many maladies.
Here are the boring lessons:
+ Dental floss twice a day.
+ Stay out of the sun.
+ Don’t believe your first doctor’s diagnosis.
+ Do your own research.
+ Keep moving.
+ Don’t stupid. Susan’s hospital puts these tags on select patients.
Maybe we should all wear them? Danger of falling is the reason Susan and I wear our Apple Watches.
Don’t do stupid. Stay well. I’m off to Australia for a family bar mitzvah. Should be fun — and warm. It’s been brutal in the north west.
The Economist question: How Far Will He Go
I hesitate to end this column with this.
How much he will hurt or hinder the stock market is an open question. Earnings are what traditionally drive stocks. Earnings have been good. Fingers crossed.
You can read the full Economist leader here.
See you soon — Harry Newton
