For my newly-modest ambitions:
At only 12.9 feet, it’s comfortable and well-endowed with bed, stove, refrigerator and toilet.
To buy this nice $48,800 tiny house, click here.
Now to our stocks
Yesterday felt great for everyone, except me. I started the day owning not a single stock. I had panicked sold everything in the days before yesterday.
I felt stupid. Maybe it was all over? By the end of the day I had bought AMZN, GOOGL, META and NVDA.
Today all these brilliant purchases are way down.
I now have two reasons to feel stupid — yesterday and today.
I will now let you into a little secret. The stock market is the only thing in my life that I don’t understand, and worse, have no control over.
Picking the best wife ever, starting new businesses, fixing things, staying healthy, eating the right stuff…All these are trivial to understand compared to stocks.
Yesterday was great. Now I understand it was a dead cat bounce. That means that bear markets — like the one we’re now in — bounce up strongly on one day. There are reasons: A president announcing a pause on some tariffs. Then a short covering squeeze.
Fact is: tariffs don’t work. They don’t protect industries. They won’t bring factories back. But they do raise prices for the people who buy things — you and I. And, worse, the way our president is mishandling tariffs, they pile uncertainty on top of uncertainty. This craters action. We do what I’m doing — stay in cash. I’m 95% in cash.
Cash doesn’t build factories or employ workers. Nor is my cash likely to buy Vagabond’s Honey-216 little house shown above.
To put things into perspective, here’s the Dow, S&P 500 and Nasdaq year-to-date. Not a pretty picture, despite yesterday’s dead cat, it is now reverting to a bear market.
What can you and I do?
+ We can sell our stocks — some or all. And make a reasonable decision that a 145% tariff on our biggest trading “partner”, i.e. China, is not going to magically bring factories back — if they were ever here.
“China stuff” is not China stuff. It’s mostly American stuff made in China. The classic case is Apple’s iPhone. Perplexity just told me that 80% to 90% of Apple’s iPhones are assembled in China primarily by Taiwanese makers such as Foxconn and Pegatron. Perplexity also told me:
“While the assembly occurs largely in China, only a small fraction of the iPhone’s components are actually manufactured by Chinese firms. A detailed analysis of the iPhone 15 Pro Max found that just 2.5% of its total cost is attributable to parts made by Chinese companies3.The majority of high-value components—such as processors (TSMC), memory (Samsung and SK hynix), displays (Samsung), and camera sensors (Sony)—are produced by companies based in the U.S., South Korea, Japan, and Taiwan.
In short, trade is woven among many players, many companies, many countries. It took years for smart people, like Tim Cook of Apple, to figure the best of weaving the tapestry.
Sadly, it’s only getting worse, China just slapped an 84% retaliatory tariff on the U.S. starting tomorrow.
That’s sure to make a lot of American farmers happy, if not broke.
+ You can do what hedge funds do — hedge. The three easiest way to do that is to to buy one of the three funds that short the Nasdaq 100. The PSQ, the QID and the SQQQ. Here’s what they look like this year — pretty good.
I asked Perplexity for “The Easiest Ways to Short the Nasdaq 100″ and got back a long detailed answer.
I haven’t the space to reproduce Perplexity’s response. But you can go to Perplexity.ai and get the same answer. Perplexity is now my favorite search engine. I’m actually paying them $200 a year, For a cheap bastard like me, that says a helluva lot.
A few minutes ago, I bought 500 QID. I won’t get rich. But I will get an education. I’m already up $138, which is better than a slap in the belly with a cold fish. (Tasteless Australian expression.) Oops, spoke too soon, I’m now losing $501. And it’s only 2:45 pm. At 2;58 pm, I’m only losing $1.85.
How to understand Trump?
I found this image on Instagram this morning. The evidence is here: the Salvadoran prison we’re sending innocent people (i.e. those without a trial), to his total lack of knowledge about tariffs, to putting the dumbest, most discredited economist into the White House (Peter Navarro)….
That’s superficial and nasty. Here’s something better — probably the best I’ve ever read on how to understand our President.
It is a fool’s errand to try to rationalize President Trump’s obsession with tariffs.
This is not to say that people haven’t tried. There are any number of theories that seek to explain Trump’s preoccupation with tariffs and trade wars. Perhaps he wants to revitalize American manufacturing and bring factory jobs back to postindustrial communities racked by poverty and despair. Perhaps he wants the revenue he generates from large tariffs to reduce deficits and help address the nation’s long-term debt. Or perhaps he hopes to rebalance the global economic system, weakening the dollar in order to make the United States a more export-driven economy.
But each line of thinking shares an obvious problem: How does one accomplish any of these goals with blanket tariffs that threaten to radically reduce trade with the United States? How do you revitalize American manufacturing if manufacturers can’t reasonably import the materials they need to build factories and produce goods? Where is capital supposed to come from? How do you reset the nation’s relationship with its trading partners if those partners are forced to treat you as a bad force that can’t be trusted? And how are you supposed to revitalize working-class communities if your trade policies will probably destroy as many blue-collar jobs as they might, theoretically, create?
There is a hypothetical president with a hypothetically similar agenda who could answer these questions. This actual president cannot. He did not reason himself into his preoccupation with tariffs and can neither reason nor speak coherently about them. There is no grand plan or strategic vision, no matter what his advisers claim — only the impulsive actions of a mad king, untethered from any responsibility to the nation or its people. For as much as the president’s apologists would like us to believe otherwise, Trump’s tariffs are not a policy as we traditionally understand it. What they are is an instantiation of his psyche: a concrete expression of his zero-sum worldview.
The fundamental truth of Donald Trump is that he apparently cannot conceive of any relationship between individuals, peoples or states as anything other than a status game, a competition for dominance. His long history of scams and hostile litigation — not to mention his frequent refusal to pay contractors, lawyers, brokers and other people who were working for him — is evidence enough of the reality that a deal with Trump is less an agreement between equals than an opportunity for Trump to abuse and exploit the other party for his own benefit. For Trump, there is no such thing as a mutually beneficial relationship or a positive-sum outcome. In every interaction, no matter how trivial or insignificant, someone has to win, and someone has to lose. And Trump, as we all know, is a winner.
This simple fact of the president’s psychology does more to explain his antipathy to international trade and enthusiasm for tariffs and other trade barriers than any theorizing about his intentions or overall vision. It certainly is not as if he has a considered view of the global economy. It is not even clear that Trump knows what a tariff is.
This isn’t a dig. The president genuinely seems to think of tariffs as fees that foreign countries pay to the United States. “We have massive Financial Deficits with China, the European Union, and many others,” he wrote on his Truth Social website on Sunday. “The only way this problem can be cured is with TARIFFS, which are now bringing Tens of Billions of Dollars into the U.S.A.” Here, you also see his related belief that a trade deficit is an actual absence of funds, akin to a negative balance in a bank account.
“I spoke to a lot of leaders — European, Asian — from all over the world. They’re dying to make a deal, but I said, ‘We’re not gonna have deficits with your country,’ ” the president told reporters on board Air Force One over the weekend. “We’re not gonna do that, because to me a deficit is a loss. We’re gonna have surpluses, or at worst we’re gonna be breaking even.”
Of course, a trade deficit is not a loss any more than it is a loss when you, as a consumer, spend your hard-earned cash at a restaurant or a movie theater or a grocery store. When American businesses buy raw materials from foreign countries to make their own products — when they buy finished products and sell them on their shelves — they aren’t incurring a loss. They are exchanging currency for something of value, which they will go on to use or sell for a profit. As a statement of economic policy, Trump’s pronouncement makes no sense. But as an expression of his zero-sum instinct, of his desire to dominate, it is perfectly coherent.
Trump’s desire to dominate others is the driving psychological force of his administration. His obsession with territorial conquest — seen in his effort to coerce the Canadian government into relinquishing its sovereignty as well as his calls for the acquisition of Greenland and the Panama Canal — is an obvious product of his predatory approach to human interaction. His authoritarian attempts to cow and coerce key institutions of civil society into compliance with his agenda and obedience to his will are, likewise, a kind of dominance game. They are meant to demonstrate his mastery over his perceived enemies more than they are to achieve any policy aim. He even said as much during an event on Tuesday, when he bragged about the law firms “signing up with Trump” and said that “they give me a lot of money, considering they’ve done nothing wrong.”
You could even say that this need to dominate — this overwhelming drive to show mastery — is constitutive of Trump’s self. There must be a loser, or else there is no Trump. Or, as Hegel put it, “self-consciousness exists in itself and for itself, in that and by the fact that it exists for another self-consciousness; that is to say, it is only by being acknowledged or recognized.”
The upshot of this understanding of Trump’s personality is that there is no point at which he can be satisfied. He will always want more: more supplicants to obey his next command, more displays of his power and authority and more opportunities to trample over those who don’t belong in his America.
On Tuesday, the White House press secretary, Karoline Leavitt, confirmed that the president had floated the illegal and unconstitutional idea of sending incarcerated American citizens to a maximum-security prison in El Salvador. This comes as the Department of Homeland Security seeks to spend $45 billion on a plan to expand immigrant detention in the United States, with new facilities to hold the many thousands of people the president intends to arrest and deport, along with the necessary services and new personnel.
If we view the president’s actions in light of his psychological need to dominate, it is almost certainly true that his flagrant abuse of the rights of migrants, asylum seekers and foreign-born students in the United States — snatching them off the streets to be imprisoned or, worse, sending them to an unaccountable foreign prison with no practical legal recourse — is just the beginning. In the same way that there was nothing that could stop Trump from imposing a tariff regime that, in his mind, humiliates America’s rivals, there is nothing that can dissuade him from using the coercive power of the state to dominate those he disfavors at home.
Trump is a winner, and he’ll show it by making all of us the loser.
You can read the original of this April 9, 2025 piece here.
Not happy making. The VIX this year.
I’m off to Boston next week. One of my grandkids. Sophie, is in a play — where she gets the part of the Jewish husband — no speaking.
Her mother thought that was funny.
Friends are out buying cars, laptops and iPhones before their price doubles.
We live in interesting times. Email me on what you’re doing to survive. — Harry Newton
