I didn’t die. And I certainly didn’t go to Heaven.
Nor did I figure out the world’s problems (let alone my own) in the two weeks I’ve been away.
First, my “BIG THINK.” We’re at peak. Where now?
Hence, I spent the weekend reading this wonderful book by my favorite economics writer:
I copied a zillion quotes. Here are some:
+ No one can doubt that the American people remain susceptible to the speculative mood-to the conviction that enterprise can be attended by unlimited rewards in which they, individually, were meant to share. A rising market can still bring the reality of riches. (He was not thinking about AI.)
+ There is now far more money flowing into the stock markets than there is intelligence to guide it. (But I’m thinking of AI.)
+ 1928, indeed, was the last year in which Americans were buoyant, uninhibited, and utterly happy. It wasn’t that 1928 was too good to last; it was only that it didn’t last.
+ On the whole, the great stock market crash can be much more readily explained than the depression that followed it. And among the problems involved in assessing the causes of depression none is more intractable than the responsibility to be assigned to the stock market crash. Economics still does not allow final answers on these matters. (Nor answers to anything.)
+ We do not know why a great speculative orgy occurred in 1928 and 1929. (But we do know why one is occurring now — AI.)
+ No one, wise or unwise, knew or now knows when depressions are due or overdue. (The gurus have been predicting an imminent recession for several years. It hasn’t happened, yet.)
My favorite quote from Galbraith’s book:
+ On my frequent visits to New York, I was distressed, however, to see no sign of it (his book) in a small bookshop on the ramp leading down to the planes in the old La Guardia terminal. One night I stopped in to inspect the shelves. The lady in charge finally noticed me and asked what I sought. Somewhat embarrassed, I passed over the name of the author and said it was a work called The Great Crash.
“Not a book you could sell in an airport,” she responded firmly.
My portfolio
Two things have happened to my portfolio:
+ Nvidia is at peak, confirming my unending enthusiasm for it. Thank you Harry for pounding the table to NVDA. Some of my readers have held on and gotten rich. Personally I believe Nvidia has more room to run. It will hit $200.
+ I couldn’t take the agita of tariffs, sales bans, and generally irrational sanity that Nvidia went through at the hands of the administration in April and I substantially broadened my holdings. This was fortuitous because it let me broaden my thinking to include wonderous stocks like Netflix, GE Vernova, Coreweave, Broadcom, Oklo, Spotify, Coinbase, and Uber.
You can peruse the full list of my holdings in the third column my web site. Click here.
There’s “thinking” behind my picks: Basically it’ s AI, data centers, the cloud, cyber-security, and streaming. I don’t touch “tariff” stocks, or companies that make boring stuff like ketchup, shoes, clothes, furniture or cars. I like to buy and hold stocks. But I’m askance about a 15%+ decline. Maybe there’s a reason to dump the stock?
I sold Tesla short recently and bought it back two days later. I pocketed $10,00 profit. It’s probably still too high.
Frankly, I’d rather play tennis than sell Tesla short — my only short this year.
Acquired releases new podcast
Acquired is my favorite podcaster. This is their slogan:
Their latest one is Google
We tell the story of the single greatest business ever created: Google search. From its origins as a Stanford research project called BackRub, Google became the front door to the internet. Today it’s an essential service for over half the world, and one that generates more profit than ANY other US company – more than Apple, Microsoft, or Berkshire Hathaway.
But it wasn’t always so obvious. When Larry and Sergey began working on BackRub in 1996, search was a backwater industry in silicon valley. Existing search companies were eking out a living as vendors to the then-dominant “portals” like AOL and Yahoo. Google’s come-from-behind success was the result of three massive step-function leaps forward in algorithms, infrastructure and business model. some invented by Google and some borrowed (and perfected!) by them.
Today, things are not so obvious once again for Google. Despite earning more profits than all of its big tech peers, its stock trades at significantly lower multiples – a $1 trillion or more discount to Apple, Microsoft and Nvidia. Investors are concerned that AI will render Google’s beautiful business model obsolete, even though Google also basically invented modern AI and continues to lead on many dimensions. This episode begins a multi-part series where we dive into the full history that led us to this point. Tune in and enjoy!
You can find The Google podcast virtually anywhere. I use PocketCasts.
Secrets of a Happy Marriage
There are several secrets to a happy marriage, including SHL (Selective Hearing Loss) and Learned Incompetences. Most successful husbands I know can’t drive, do laundry, cooking, or God Forbid, load the dishwasher. Yesterday I reached a new high.
I was told that I didn’t know how to empty the dishwasher…
This is my favorite marriage story. Enjoy:
The Pirate and the Barman
A pirate walks into a bar and the bartender says “Are you OK?”
The pirate says, “Yes, I feel fine. Why?”
The bartender says, “Well, last time you were here you had two legs. What about that wooden leg?”
The pirate replies, “Well, we got into a battle and got my leg blown off. But really, I’m OK.”
The bartender says, “What about that hook? Last time you were here you had two hands and now one of them is a hook.”
To which the pirate replies, “Well, I got into a sword fight and got my hand cut off. But really, I’m OK.”
The bartender then says, “What about that patch over your eye? Last time you were here you had two eyes.”
The pirate says, “Well, we were out at sea, and a flock of seagulls flew overhead. I looked up, and one pooped in my eye.”
The bartender replies, “You lost your eye because a seagull pooped in your eye?”
“Well no, it was the first day with the hook!”
How life ends
+ It’s been months since I bought the book, “How To Scam People OnLine.” It hasn’t arrived yet.
+ If your palm itches, you are going to get something. If your crotch itches, you’ve already got it.
+ My life will end when one of my grandkids unplugs my life support to charge their phone.
Dollar Saving Tips
I promised a bunch. I will follow up tomorrow. For now:
+ You’re paying too much for cell phone service. All the carriers — including the miserable one you use — will cut your bill by two-thirds. Just ask.
+ Say NO to all forms of home automation. You’ll use it once. Then it will break. And the parts will be manufacturer-discontinued.
+ Don’t buy a “smart” TV. Buy a dumb one and attach a Roku to it. Smart TV are too smart for normal people.
+ A dear friend is suffering from incurable Lyme Disease. Stay away from the woods.
+ If your laptop’s sound stops, you need to update your drivers.
+ If you’re old (like me) you need an updated Covid 19 vaccine. I get mine through CVS which has a great app which reminds me and keeps a record of my shots.
+ Friends are still falling down stairs. They dumbly forget to hold the railing. They typically fall on the last step going down.
+ My iPhone’s personal hotspot is the easiest way to get my laptop onto the Internet — for emails and surfing, but not movies.
Paradise
This week’s sunset, courtesy Mark Johnson, in Columbia County, mid-state New York. It’s paradise. But please don’t move here.
That’s it. I’ll be back. Promise. — Harry Newton
