The dumbest thing I used to do — Sell when share prices went down.
I did this after Liberation Day back in April. When share prices started going back up, I got back in.
I was too late. That stupidity cost me.
This time I learned my lesson. Hang in.
Our AI stocks have not done well recently — with the exception of Google.
Meta (Facebook) has been a disaster. Nvidia a semi-disaster.
There are four reasons:
+ Hot air is leaking out of the AI hype. As that happens, the talking heads jump on the deflating balloon, making up all sorts of reasons for the leak.
+ Hedgies are selling because their returns look good enough for their (dumb?) investors. The year is ending.
+ Debt is now increasingly used to finance the data center build out. Too much bad debt always causes financial crises.
+ The AI providers will never be able to earn enough money to pay off their immense investments in data centers, etc.
I’ve spent months and months reading, learning, studying, researching AI.
My take: This AI bubble has just stared to inflate. Heck if mean-me is paying money to Perplexity every month, something is going on.
Read that again, Cheapskate Harry is paying money for AI.
And Cheapskate Harry plan on spending even more on AI in coming months.
I asked Perplexity “How many people are using AI every day?”
Her answer? (It’s a she, right?)
“About 500 to 600 million people use AI tools every day worldwide, which is roughly 6-7% of the global population.”
Tonight Nvidia reports earnings. It should be blow-out, since everyone in AI buys Nvidia chips. They’re the foundation.
NVDA has fallen from $212 to $185.
Surprisingly the biggest gainer in the last month is Google. It’s the light brown line at the top.
If Nvidia reports blowout numbers this evening, maybe they’ll morph to the others?
Maybe they’ll even morph to Meta (Facebook) which is doing just plain awful– it’s the bottom blue line.
The gurus think Meta is spending too much for too few returns. You can get a bigger explanation on Perplexity or ChatGPT.
META is pulling my portfolio down. Maybe it will bounce? It has before.
I’m not a happy camper. I like it when stocks go up.
The ultimate irony
Exactly a year ago I put Jill, the manager of our local tennis club into an IRA.
I put all the money into one ETF — Vanguard’s VGT — its technology ETF.
A year later without my doing absolutely anything — like looking, fretting, quetching or moaning — her IRA is up 20%. That includes Liberation Day.
You know what the management fee on VGT is — a meager 0.09%. Perplexity said that fee of 0.09% “is near the very bottom of the cost spectrum, even among passive funds and major market-tracking ETFs.”
Good things happen
This morning I hit a magnificent backhand drop volley.
I am pleased I am still playing tennis every day. I’m 83.
I am hooked
I will admit to being hooked on Ken Burns’ latest masterpiece:
Every night at 8 PM Susan and I crawl into bed, and faithfully turn on YouTubeTV and play two hours of the latest episode the The American Revolution.
You can stream it from a thousand places at any time — Google “The American Revolution.”
It’s gripping. I’m making a list of all the dumb things King George did, I wouldn’t employ King George to organize an queue for an outhouse.
Saturday Night Live got in the act with this hilarious piece.
Here’s Jensen recently. I hope his earnings numbers tonight match his unerring enthusiasm for AI.
Great discipline. I’m jealous
Dan Brown, the man who wrote this best-seller…
works from 4 AM to 12 noon. Seven days a week writing.
If I had that discipline, I’d probably understand how the stock market works.
I enjoyed Secret of Secrets. You will, too.
Best Tech Tips
I’ have a million prepared. I’ll detail them tomorrow. For now:
+ When a someone installs something, I always ask “What could go wrong?” And I buy spares.
+ Expensive cars like Mercedes and BMW have low-profile, run-flat tires. The picture on the left is my Subaru with normal tires. The picture on the right is from my wife’s Mercedes. Tiwce it’s hit a bump and cracked its metal rim, requiring pricey welding. Jack of Fredericks Performance in Ghent, NY had a brilliant idea: Put more air in the ties. Mercedes recommends 34 in the front and back Jack says 43 and 48. Works like a charm. Thank you Jack.
Favorite nonsenses
I’m rooting for Jensen this evening.
Life is wonderful. — Harry Newton
