In Search of the Perfect Investment

I post a new column once a day at 9:00 AM.

“They’re taking a rest,” my friend the money manager explained. “They’ve all made plenty of money this year. They’ve heard about Sell in May and Go Away. Hence they’re selling. They will bank their gains, stay in cash and look for some short-term opportunities.”

Silver is the big sell. But then it was also the Big RISE…

With parabolic rises — like silver has enjoyed this year — you have to expect what’s happened in the last few days. If you’re playing this game, you have to dump fast. I dumped silver (SLV) — surprisingly (at least for me) at above what it closed at last night.

You’ll notice that gold (SGOL) has not gone parabolic. I’m still in gold, and still optimistic about it. All the economic concerns I mentioned yesterday continue to make gold a great hedge.

Shorting First Solar. Everyone is shorting FSLR. There are reasons: Solar still costs more than  electricity from coal and nat gas. Solar is not useful for base load, etc. Oodles of depressing arguments.  I’ve shorted FSLR — when it was much higher — and its P/E was totally ridiculous. At last night’s price it was 19.21 – not off the charts ridiculous.

I’m wary of shorting FSLR for the same reason I’m wary of biiotech — too much irrational government involvement you can’t predict. Germany is the biggest buyer and user of solar. Germany? I’ve never seen the sun when I’ve been there. Yet they love solar. The German government is encouraging solar and discouraging oil. It makes sense from a political, but not a business, point of view.

I bet FSLR will plummet today and prove me an idiot.

Sharesleuth asks “Where are the Cocos?” This is a $13,000 street legal Chinese-made car called a Coco.

Apparently the maker, a listed Nasdaq company, KNDI is overstating the car’s piddly sales. I like Sharesleuth.

Personally I prefer the Mercedes Smart Car,which sells for roughly the same price. I see a lot of these in New York City. Every owner I ask loves his Smart Car. The thing is actually not much longer than my folding Dahon bicycle.

The perfect business. When children playing in the fields let a ball fly into the bin Laden compound, the owners never let them retrieve the ball, but gave them 50 rupees to buy a new ball.

When the children began to throw balls into the compound on purpose to get more money, the owners kept paying.

Bin Laden virus-filled websites emerge. If you receive an email purporting to give you secret information about Osama’s death, ignore the email. Otherwise, it will lead you to a website full of viruses and — worse, fake antivirus software.

Getting rid of mice, part 2. A reader recommends something called “Critter Away.”  He says it contains “crystallized fox pee.”

I asked, “How do they collect the ingredients?”

Answer: “I don’t know…I don’t wanna know…”

Looking to buy a frog?
A man walks into a bar and asks the bartender, “If I show you a really good trick, will you give me a free drink?” The bartender considers it, then agrees. The man reaches into his pocket and pulls out a tiny rat. He reaches into his other pocket and pulls out a tiny piano. The rat stretches, cracks his knuckles, and proceeds to play the blues.

After the man finished his drink, he asked the bartender, “If I show you an even better trick, will you give me free drinks for the rest of the evening?”

The bartender agrees, thinking that no trick could possibly be better than the first. The man reaches into his pocket and pulls out a tiny rat. He reaches into his other pocket and pulls out a tiny piano. The rat stretches, cracks his knuckles, and proceeds to play the blues. The man reaches into another pocket and pulls out a small bullfrog, who begins to sing along with the rat’s music.

While the man is enjoying his beverages, a stranger confronts him and offers him $100,000.00 for the bullfrog.

“Sorry,” the man replies, “he’s not for sale.”

The stranger increases the offer to $250,000.00 cash up front.

“No,” he insists, “he’s not for sale.” The stranger again increases the offer, this time to $500,000.00 cash.

The man finally agrees, and turns the frog over to the stranger in exchange for the money.

“Are you insane?” the bartender demanded. “That frog could have been worth millions to you, and you let him go for a mere $500,000!”

“Don’t worry about it.” the man answered. “The frog is really nothing special. You see, the rat’s a ventriloquist.”

Harry Newton who has officially given up on Spring. This morning, it’s gray, cold and raining.

Harry: What do April showers bring?

Claire (daughter): Why May flowers.

Harry: Excellent. Now what do May flowers bring?

Claire: I give up.

Harry: Why Pilgrims, of course.

Claire: Yuch. P.S. I’m no longer 6. I’ve grown up.