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Some strategies for the future. Search for structurally declining.

He’s going to swing. Or at least go to prison. I have zero sympathy for someone who dipped into customer accounts and took customer money to enhance and/or cover his souring bets.  From the New York Times DealBook:

CME Chief Claims Corzine Knew About Missing Money: Terrence Duffy, the chief executive of the CME Group, the exchange responsible for regulating MF Global, told the Senate Agriculture Committee that he has information that indicates Jon S. Corzine, the former chief executive of MF Global, knew about the missing customer money and was aware of the improper transfers of customer money. Mr. Corzine had earlier told the panel that he “never directed anyone at MF Gobal to misuse customer funds.”

I continue to be worried about all my accounts at brokerage companies and in banks. The only solution is to spread your “wealth.”

I sound like Cassandra, forecasting doom and disaster. But… The Euro has now fallen below $1.30 for the first time in 11 months and will fall lower. I don’t believe they’ll hold the Euro together, though that may actually be good for countries like Italy that routinely devaluted every five to seven years — before they joined the Euro.

Gold has busted through my key support line. I dumped most of my gold holdings. I suspect that hedge funds are selling gold to help finance end-of-year redemptions, which promise to be huge — after an awful year.

I may pick my gold holdings back up in the New Year, since I can see it rising strongly if we have an economic mess in 2012 and the Euro falls apart. Who’ll want fiat currencies then?

I do like my latest King of the Declining Industries title. My two forays into shorting Dell and RIMM has already produced handsome profits. (see Monday’s column.) I’m looking for more. The world is full of companies which boomed, then the world changed. For example, the iPad is killing the laptop market. The iPhone and sundry Android devices is killing Research in Motion. There are zillions of others. Important to turn one’s head to declining industries.

I am not becoming a day trader. That’s a fool’s game. But I do recognize that changing time calls for changing strategies. I bought some more muni bonds yesterday. But I’m very selective. I stay no more than 5-7 years, since I recognize that one day — in the distant future — interest rates will rise. But for now, they’re staying low — affirmed yesterday, once again, by the Fed.

Harry’s Rule: Interest rates will only rise when the Fed (not you or me) sees we have inflation. The Fed will not see inflation with high unemployment and high under-employment. Figure another five years before we see anything like “normal” employment.

Two of my ultra-high yield mortgage REITs — NLY and AGNC — are holding up, despite doom and gloom predictions from several readers:

Stocking Stuffers — Part 3. Here are two pictures of one of my laptops powering an external, portable, two pound, 14″, $200, 1366 x 768 pixel  monitor called a Lenovo ThinkVision LT1421. A second monitor significantly increases your “productivity.” You can paste from one screen to the other. Look at assumptions on one screen, fix the spreadsheet on the other. I could also easily extend a spreadsheet across the two monitors.

In my office I write this column  using four monitors — three external and one on the laptop. I  can’t take my heavy glass monitors with me on trips. But I can take this darling featherweight monitor, which  comes with a sturdy plastic clip-on cover making it perfect for travel and easily setting up in your distant hotel room.

I thought I’d use the occasion of this review to test the enhanced camera on the iPhone 4S. This is the 4S.

This is the iPhone 4.

There is more detail in the 4S and slightly more richness of color. Not a reason to upgrade, however.

Buy the external monitor at Amazon.

The long kiss goodbye
A tough looking group of bikers were riding when they saw a beautiful girl about to jump off a bridge so they stopped.

The leader, a big burly man, gets off his bike and says, “What are you doing?”

“I’m going to commit suicide,” she says.

While he did not want to appear insensitive, he didn’t want to miss an opportunity, so he asked…. “Well, before you jump, why don’t you give me a kiss?”

So she does… It was a long, deep lingering kiss.

After she’s finished, the biker says, “Wow! That was the best kiss I have ever had. That’s a real talent you are wasting. You could be famous. Why are you committing suicide?”

“My parents don’t like me dressing up like a girl……”


Harry Newton who wonders why Rosie suddenly weighs 13 lbs. If only my portfolio were growing as fast as Rosie. I wish.

9 Comments

  1. Steve T. says:

    Why on earth would you be worried about your accounts in banks provided it is under the 250 grand FDIC limit? Or, in major brokerage houses, which have insurance up to 500k? The admonishment to spread your wealth is correct, but to be worried about bank accounts that are FDIC insured? I realize this is a site for economic bears and survivalist types, but it is ridiculous.

    Sorry if I'm too harsh, but I'm just so frustrated with the bloggers like yourself who preach doom and gloom. In 2008-09 when you types said it was the end of the world, that turned out to be the buying opportunity of a lifetime. How much did you buy then, Harry? I'm going to guess you only sold. Me, I bought, and got significantly richer in the process.

    • HarryNewton says:

      i didn't say I was worried about banks with FDIC protection. I am worried about brokerage accounts with dubious protection, viz MF Global.. I don't think that the present time is like March of 2009, when stocks were cheap. Right now most seem to be fully priced, especially as we stare into the likelihood of a world recession. I'm glad you're doing well.

  2. Pahowley says:

    Every time we have Wall Street crooks (is that redundant?) caught in some ripoff, our illustrious Congress passes yet another dumb set of laws, while exempting themselves, which have no positive effect, except to severely burden smaller firms across America and keep countless lawyers happily busy. My somewhat tongue-in-cheek suggestion of many years ago to a small/medium Washington business lobbying group, was rather to hang those found guilty on Wall Street and leave them there hanging for 30 days. That would have a far greater impact on Wall Street corporate crime than passing yet another bunch of worthless laws.

    Fits right in with Harry's heading above too!

  3. David says:

    Harry I have to “admire you” for all the gadgetry you have obviously purchased, or tried over the years I have followed you, and of course all the various multitudes of investments and strategy's you have imployed. I have thought about you and your multitudes of ideas and have concluded two things, one is you have to pocess the largest warehouse of used discarded products that many of us still find functional and #2 that all these multiple dozens if not more investments would drive me off a “cliff”…..whatever happened to Kiss…..”keeping it simple”….?…..You will win the award for “Accumlation of Stuff Award”….!!

  4. Michael says:

    One positive in all this – Going to Paris and Amsterdam in 2 weeks.  My dollar might be worth something now…

  5. jack says:

    harry l told you last week when you were bullish on gold it had to drop to below 1500 on the charts  these are tea leaves that have worked for years.  i will let you know when to buy.  also watch for slv to hit below 24.  nly is in trouble along as the feds keep the twist around.  i believe they will say next year that did not work, no chance as long as dodd/frankenstein bill is around, so then they will try QE3.  just be careful and pput a tight stop on nly.