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A reader sold his NVIDIA. His nose was bleeding. I’ve been there. Done that. It wasn’t pleasant.

Another reader wrote “Harry I would short Nvidia here. Sell sell while you can. Later it will be so cheap.”

Both may be geniuses. 

All I know is that timing the market is a loser’s game. 

I’ll sell when I’m convinced that the stock has taken a abject turn for the worse — when things have changed dramatically. For example Tesla, But most of the time my “stock analysis” concludes with “When in doubt — and I’m in doubt more often that out of doubt — stay out.” (For example, Verizon, Boeing, etc.)

But for now, Nvidia? 

This morning I received notice of Nvidia’s March AI Conference and Expo. If you weren’t impressed with Nvidia’s future … first there’s the keynote

Now, here’s the program:

Maybe Nvidia will tank because it went parabolic. But I’m not taking that chance. I’ve been there, done that. I even wrote a blog about it. Then a day later I was forced to buy back all my Nvidia stock (and more) — at higher prices. Dumb me.

This morning my researcher Richard Grigonis emailed me “Facebook/Meta stockpiled MASSIVE amounts of NVIDIA GPUs. The goal is AGI…” he included this video:

Timing of great stocks is a loser’s game. 

Yesterday the New York Times investment writer Jeff Sommer wrote this piece…

His piece included:

Despite that fierce bear market — and six others, including the pandemic bear market that began on Jan. 3, 2022 — these are the returns of the S&P 500 over the long haul from Aug. 31, 1976, through November, according to Bloomberg:

    • Based on price alone, the S&P 500 rose 8.4 percent, annualized, or a cumulative 4,338.6 percent.

    • Including dividends reinvested regularly in the index, the total return of the S&P 500 was 11.4 percent annualized, or a cumulative 16,145.4 percent.

That, in a nutshell, is the miracle of compounding. Individual market peaks and troughs for long-term investors were irrelevant. What mattered was staying in the U.S. market throughout the entire period. That would have been true even without dividends. But when you factor in dividends — which flow right back into your index fund and are used to purchase new fund shares, which generate more dividends, and on and on — the results are mind boggling.

Imagine that you had been wise enough to put $1,000 into the index fund on its first day in 1976 and to have been patient enough to have let your pot of money grow through November. Your $1,000 would have increased by $161,454.

Useful techie stuff

+ In cold weather, keep your gas tank full. Moisture condenses and freezes. 

+ Your iPhone has  Settings/Phone/Silence Unknown Callers. Calls from unknown numbers (those not on your iPhone’s contact list) will be silenced, sent to voice mail and displayed on the Recents list. This is a beautiful “Do not disturb” feature. Except that if you’re expecting a call from someone who’s not on the list, all you’ll get — maybe — is a voice mail and frustration.

+ My insurance company tells me they won’t insure me unless I install a water cutoff valve. That’s a device which figures if we’re having , or about to have a flood. They’re putting in a Moen in this morning. More about that tomorrow.

Texas Logic

A mean looking cowboy rode into town and stopped at a saloon for a drink. Unfortunately, the locals always had a habit of picking on strangers, which he was. When he finished his drink, he found that his horse had been stolen. He went back into the bar, handily flipped his gun into the air, caught it above his head without even looking and fired four shots into the ceiling.

The saloon fell silent.

“Which one of you yellow belly sidewinders stole my horse?!” he yelled with surprising forcefulness.

Nobody uttered a word.

“Alright, I’m gonna have another beer, and I’m warning you all, if my horse ain’t back outside by the time I finish, I’m gonna do what I dun in Texas! and I don’t like to have to do what I dun in Texas again!!!”.

He fired two more bullets into the ceiling for emphasis.

Some of the locals shifted restlessly. The man, true to his word, had another beer, walked outside, and his horse has been returned to the post. He saddled up and started to ride out of town.

The bartender wandered out of the bar and asked, “Say partner, before you go… what happened in Texas?”

The cowboy turned back and said, “I had to walk all the way home by myself in the dark .”

See you soon: — Harry Newton