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Screeners, momentum or management? How to choose stocks.

There are a thousand ways of picking stocks. You can use screeners and computers. Investors Business Daily (the newspaper) puts out one of the more famous. They call it IBD 50 and publish the list every Monday.

Their top 25 are:

I find their recommendations often a little late. The stock has already run.

But you work with their list and ask Google to send you Google Alerts each time the stock is mentioned somewhere.

Through Alerts you get a feeling of the feelings about the stock at present — call this Momentum Investing.

Lately Apple’s “buzz” has turned very positive — undoubtedly a factor in the stock’s rise of late.

AGNC has been getting a lot of favorable press recently, which has probably accounted for its rise, also. Latest piece “American Capital: The No. 1 REIT To Buy Now.” Click here.

Despite its recent rise, it’s still yielding 15.5%.

This is Apple over the past ten years:

This is Microsoft over the the past ten years:

Vanity Fair has a huge story this issue, “How Microsoft Lost Its Mojo.”

On December 30, 1999, Microsoft’s stock hit its pre-split all-time high of $119.94. Sixteen days later Bill Gates handed off the CEO reigns to Steve Ballmer.

And the stock went nowhere for the next ten years. Ballmer is neither a “product guy” nor a manager.  He changed the company in everything from its present lack of focus on great products to its insane employee review system called stack ranking.

Until Ballmer leaves (and he should), Microsoft’s stock is not worth touching.

You can read a summary of the Vanity Fair piece here. But for the full piece, you’ll need to buy a copy of the magazine.

Be thankful for small mercies. Our unemployment is 8.2%. But Spain’s is 24.6% and Greece is 21.9% Much worse is the unemployment among young people — 52.1% in both Greece and Spain. That creates a whole block of people voting for nutcase politicians. Think the thirties.

The Daily Show does trickle down economics. Click here.


Harry Newton who has been skimming “Fifty Shades of Grey.” It’s the present era’s “Story of O” which we all devoured when we were kids.

It’s a fun, engrossing read. You can read about its plot on Wikipedia and learn what the acronym BDSM stands for. The book has sold more than 20 million copies. Amazing. financial success. The author is a woman, which makes it actually more interesting. Click here.

7 Comments

  1. Fred789 says:

    Harry, our charts are showing that the U.S. and global stock markets entered a new, long-term bull market in March of 2009. While it's too late for you and people who take your advice to capitalize on the massive returns from '09 to present, you can still reap the benefits of the modest to out-sized gains going forward from this bull, which we're forecasting will continue into 2020 or longer. 

    • Jbwolf says:

      Fred,

      Everything that we are looking at points to a coming recession and likely deflation. If history repeats itself – it is coming.  Then add the additional burden of the upcoming health care mandate and another storm is inevidible.

      • Fred789 says:

        Hey Roubini,

        You talk about history repeating itself? How often have their been mega, uber recessions within a couple of years of one another? You're calling for another? You've fallen into the trap of listening to the media too much. Didn't you hear? Bad news draws eyeballs. Media plays up the bad, and downplays the good. You fell for it. There won't be another severe recession anytime soon. 

  2. TheRonaldReagan says:

    “This creates a whole block of people voting for nutcase politicians.”……..Harry Newton (who incidentally not only voted for but worked for the Obama campaign)  You simply can't make this shit up.  

    I love it when the left tries to condemn “trickle down economics”.  As we all know they certainly don't believe in any trickle down theories over in Europe.  I am enjoying watching the liberal lies of Keynesian Economics destroy all of your social utopias.  Trickle down economics — yea sure it doesn't work, but SOCIALISM sure does!  FUCKING MORONS. 

  3. Jbwolf says:

    I wonder if Spain and Greece calculate their unemployment the same way we do?
    If you take out those who have falled off the list for reasons not under their control, the rate in the US can be as much as 50% higher.  

    The problem we have is that instead of taking the stimulus money and putting people to work, it went toward making them comfortable doing nothing instead of seriously looking to do something to support them and their family.  Those opportunities would have been available if the stimulus money was put to proper use.

    It's amazing how the government can be handed a tool useful to getting us out of a recession, but squander it for personal gain instead of the interest of the country.  Now the chickens are coming home to roost and we are headed back into recession while no real recovery has taken place

    • Pahowley says:

      One thing we shouldn't forget in this lousy economy is how well the Washington politicians, and many at the state/municipal level, are doing, along with the giant group living off the government, both lobbyists/consultants/contractors and welfare recipients. They are not hurting – just try to find a home foreclosure in the Washington DC area. Fat cats. So it pays them to sound contrite and sincere about all this “pain”, but it's BS, just more lawyerly hot words, while they pad their rich bank accountants and tax payer paid benefits.

      So, their chickens are not coming home to roost; ours are.