In Search of the Perfect Investment

Coal is on the ropes.

Think the dot-com bust. Think the housing bust. Think the savings and loan bust of the late 1980s. Think the banking bust of 2008.

The evidence is everywhere — from the bankruptcy of Patriot Coal, a major producer, to the huge layoffs in coal producing places throughout the U.S., to the explosion (not meant as a pun)  of natural gas production, to our government’s mandating of reduced carbon emissions — virtually forcing  natural gas on electricity-making power plants that now use coal.

This is the end of the coal industry as we know it.

“I’ve never seen anything as quick as this to devastate the market, and this many layoffs at one time,” says Thomas Clark, publisher of The Echo newspaper and a mine inspector for the past four decades. “It’s been a landslide.” He was quoted on the web pages of KERA News for North Texas.

The invention of fracking made today’s natural gas boom. That’s the invention that will kill coal.

For an  analogy, think of what the invention of the Internet did to (and is still doing) to print media.

The obvious short is Arch Coal. Sadly, it’s already fallen 60% this year.

Here is a list of the world’s top coal producers:

Though BHP has other businesses, it’s also on the skids:

I have run out of time this morning. I’ll continue this tomorrow. Meantime, here are some important pieces to read (and listen to):

+ KERA. Click here.

+ This week’s Economist has an 18-page report on “Natural Gas — An Unconventional Bonanza.” The report will blow you away. It ends a huge tantalizer:

Moreover, there is always the possibility of another technological breakthrough. Many a gasman talks excitedly of methane hydrates, “ice that burns”. MIT calls it “tomorrow’s unconventional resource”. The icy white material, found in seabed sediments around the globe and in frozen Arctic sandstone reservoirs, contains lots of gas.

A Japanese company sunk a test well in the Canadian permafrost in 2008 and Japan is now preparing for test-drilling off its own coast. America’s government is also backing the development of technology to extract methane hydrates. Though tricky to get at, and dangerously explosive, methane hydrates could be a massive energy source. By some estimates the gas locked up in methane hydrates amounts to twice the global reserves of all conventional gas, oil and coal put together-though only a small part of this may be recoverable, even with whizzy new technology. Still, until just a few years ago much the same was said about shale gas.

To read the Economist’s full report, click here.

+ What’s Killing ‘King Coal’ In West Virginia? A report over the weekend from National Public Radio (NPR). Click here.

A little good news. From Friday’s New York Times:

In Latest Data on Economy, Experts See Signs of Pickup

WASHINGTON – Despite the recent run of disappointing economic data, a broad range of experts and forecasters expect the economy to improve slightly in coming months, thanks to lower oil prices and new signs of life from sectors like automobiles and housing.

Call it a firming up, if not quite a comeback.

Economists at many of the most-watched forecasting organizations, both public and private, expect growth to pick up through the summer and into the fall, although only to a pace broadly considered sluggish, if not dismal.

This week, Macroeconomic Advisers, an economic consultancy often cited by policy makers, estimated the annual rate of growth in the second quarter at just 1.2 percent – well below the pace needed to reduce the unemployment rate. But the firm also projected growth to accelerate to around 2.4 percent in the third quarter.

“The pace of economic growth is picking up, but not to a rate that is very robust,” said Joel Prakken, the chairman of Macroeconomic Advisers. “It certainly is no great shakes.”

You can read the full New York Times article here.

Thoughts on parking money:

+ Vanguard GNMA Fund Admiral Shares (VFIJX). Present yield 2.96%

+ Vanguard Long-Term Investment-Grade Fund Admiral Shares (VWETX)  4.29%

+ Vanguard Intermediate-Term Investment-Grade Fund Admiral Shares (VFIDX) 2.62%

+ Vanguard High-Yield Tax-Exempt Fund Admiral Shares (VWALX) 2.82%

These funds have risen recently, juicing up their returns. How you feel about the future of interest rates will determine how you feel about these funds. Personally, I think interest rates will continue to slide. Good news: You can sell these funds from one day to the next – in case I’m wrong. (It’s been known to happen.)

Favorite recent New Yorker cartoons.

Harry Newton who wonders at the price of his obsessions. So, Harry decides to switch from Windows XP to Windows 7. There must be advantages to a 10-year newer operating system — including speed and stability. Sadly compatibility is not one of them. Which means I spent most of yesterday (after tennis) chasing new Win 7 software to replace the old rWin XP eliables. Oih, what a waste of time… I’ll report on my findings tomorrow.

Is there a simple conclusion: Yes, if your old, computer works, don’t mess with it. Second, once again I am appalled at Microsoft and its many continuing insane decisions. Why there hasn’t been a wholesale shareholder revolt to get rid of the present incompetent CEO  Steve Ballmer, I’ll never know. One of today’s great mysteries.

I’m treasurer of our apartment building in New York City. We are switching from oil to natural gas. The economics are compelling. Natural gas is so much cheaper than oil and burns so much more cleanly.