My heart goes out to the people of Boston. My daughter, her husband and many of my friends and business acquaintances live there. I talk to them. Their lives are shaken. They talk of the dead and of the people who lost arms and legs. This is not what they wanted for their wonderful city, or for themselves. The people of Boston are resilient. They’ll find the perpetrator. They’ll rebuild and move on, stronger.
The market came back a little yesterday after the previous days’ huge drop. There’s no way to predict this. Except it’s volatile. I hear the about the same number of gloom and doom predictions as I hear boom and boom predictions. I personally remain optimistic and fully invested (except for some cash)
IPOs continue to come. Your and my chance of getting an allocation are slim to none. Not only do you need to be a client of the “left book lead” — the major underwriter. But you need to be a significant client. And it’s better that you be an institution. Even better, a significant institution. Getting an allocation is immensely complex. Begging rarely works. You might be getting stock in a hot new IPO because the last one you got went south. You might be a “syndicate player.” These are guys who buy every IPO — good or bad. Some sell the stock instantly. They’re called “wise guys.” Some guys hold it. They’re called investors. There are “strategies” in between.
I’ve been allocated tiny amounts of new issues in recent months. Never worth the time.
You can always buy them when they start trading. I bought some PF (Pinnacle Foods). It’s up 7% since I bought it on its debut in late March. Fairway is coming shortly. It may be worth a fling because of its cult following. Susan loves her local Fairway. Sadly it’s losing money.
Intel is a mess. The new CEO insists on concentrating the firm’s efforts on faster X86 chips Once he had a huge communications division, which was making $2 billion or so. He shuttered it to concentrate on X86 chips. It’s the old story: When the founder leaves, sell the stock. Intel’s stock is going nowhere.
Gold is getting sillier and sillier. Yesterday I saw predictions of gold going to $800 an ounce and ones saying it was going to $1.600. It’s presently $1,384. The gold gurus still believe everybody should own some gold for when the world falls apart, as it will soon do. (I’m counting.)
Richard Russell, who’s been writing stockmarket newsletters for eons, has just written:
Gold — The surest action in the market is the automatic recovery following a crash. Yesterday gold did actually crash. I now expect gold to embark on a partial recovery of the ground lost during the crash. After the recovery, I expect to see gold settle back to some extent. Gold should then start to build a base for a further advance. The construction of the base will take weeks, possibly even months. If the gold bull market is still in force (and I think it is), I expect gold, once the base is completed, to make an irregular run for the highs of over 1900. …
Look, I was there in 1974 when gold first hit $200/oz. and subsequently proceeded to lose half its value. It took gold four long years to again reach $200, 4 years that were very hard on those who bought near the highs. I also remember quite vividly gold peaking at $850 early in 1980, and then starting its long, long decline, finally bottoming in 1999 around $250. Nineteen years of Chinese water torture for those of us convinced of gold’s righteousness and that higher prices were just around the corner!
Admin is a bad password. Please change it to something hard for a computer to guess — like sd$590&36Tan. The need to change passwords is urgent if you are running a server attached to the Internet. WordPress web sites are especially being targeted for computer attacks.
So beauty is in the describing? Everyone in the family is fascinated with this video. “You are more beautiful than you think” is the video’s conclusion. I never had any doubts (except for my too-large nose.) Click here.
Saying NO is the hardest word in the English. But it’s important to learn to say it. And say it more often. I could write a book on all the reasons to say NO. Maybe I will.
Harry Newton, who’s been reading a lot of annual reports lately. These things are a lot more useful than listening to BubbleVision or reading opinions on the Internet.
Son Michael getting heavy massage after his half-marathon last weekend in Portland, Oregon. Looks like both were enjoying it.
I love this! Harry Newton proclaims he’s optimistic about the market and fully invested and within a couple of days the market begins to collapse. The comedy relief on this site is much better than The Onion. Harry, Harry, Harry – the time to go all in on the market was 2009 or, after a smaller crash/collapse. When the market’s at an all time high and you’re going all in you sound like a rank amateur.
I didn’t say I was buying at these high levels. I’m not. I said I was staying in.
But today is proving brutal. I’m not denying that.
Most importantly, I am glad I’m amusing you. Have you personally sold everything?
Oh, no. I rarely sell. I just haven’t bought much of anything except for a tiny bit of Apple and a tiny amount of silver after both dived, for some time. If the drop continues I’ll be buying in a week or three.