In Search of the Perfect Investment

The Republicans don’t like Obamacare.
They have tried over 40 times to repeal it.
Now they will shut down the government at midnight tonight, unless — their latest idea — Obamacare is delayed a year.
It won’t be.
The Federal Government will be shut down — the first time in 17 years.
That will hurt stocks.
Past shutdowns have been good buying opportunities for stocks.
We don’t know how this one will end. Too many politicians are too incensed about Obamacare and have moved to extreme, intransigent positions — willing to hurt many of the people who voted for them.
I’m guessing we’ll see some compromise position in the next few days once ordinary people begin to feel the mess and put pressure on their representatives.
Being a Congressperson or a Senator is one of the few jobs you need absolutely no qualifications. No training. No degrees. No licenses. Nothing.
Kennedy once said that Washington was eight square miles surrounded by reality.

Here’s this morning’s New York Times on the mess (or as Steve Case called it this morning — “the squabble.”)

Senate Action on Health Law Moves to Brink of Shutdown

WASHINGTON – The Senate is expected to reject decisively a House bill that would delay the full effect of President Obama’s health care law as a condition for keeping the government running past Monday, as Senator Harry Reid, the Democratic majority leader, expressed confidence that he had public opinion on his side.

Angering Republicans who lead the House, Mr. Reid kept the Senate shuttered on Sunday, in a calculated move to stall action on the House measure until Monday afternoon, just hours before the government’s spending authority runs out at midnight.

Without a complete capitulation by House Republicans, large sections of the government would close, hundreds of thousands of workers would be furloughed without pay, and millions more would be asked to work for no pay. (My emphasis.)

Polls show that the public is already deeply unhappy with its leaders in Congress, and the prospect of the first government shutdown in 17 years would be the latest dispiriting development. With a temporary shutdown appearing inevitable without a last-ditch compromise, the battle on Sunday became as much about blaming the other side as searching for a solution.

House Republicans, who insisted that they had passed a compromise over the weekend that would avoid a shutdown if only the Senate would act, blamed Mr. Reid for purposely running out the clock.

“Unlock those doors, I say to Harry Reid,” said Representative Ann Wagner, a Missouri Republican who stood on the steps of the empty Senate on Sunday with a dozen of her House colleagues. “Come out and do your job.”

But Mr. Reid sees little incentive or political advantage in bowing to those demands. He has held his 54-member caucus together so far. And because of support from some Senate Republicans who have called it a mistake for House Republicans to try to force changes to the health care law in an unrelated fight over the budget, Mr. Reid’s hand has been strengthened.

You can read the rest here.

Here is the New York Times DealPro on it:

Wall Street Uneasy in Face of Government Shutdown

Wall Street has wearily grown accustomed in recent years to periodic market flare-ups caused by fiscal fights in Washington.

But the current battle — and the looming threat of a government shutdown on Tuesday — is beginning to cause greater unease than past political disputes and may rattle markets when they reopen on Monday.

For investors, the chief fear is that a government shutdown would set the stage for a more momentous battle over the so-called debt ceiling. If there is no agreement to raise the borrowing limit by mid-October, the government will not be able to issue more bonds and could default on its outstanding borrowing.

You can read the rest of the piece here.

Here’s the Wall Street Journal on the looming shutdown:

Government Heads Toward Shutdown
Senate Doesn’t Reconvene Until Monday Afternoon, Hours Before Deadline

WASHINGTON-The nation braced for a partial shutdown of the federal government, as time for Congress to pass a budget before a Monday midnight deadline grew perilously short and lawmakers gave no signs Sunday they were moving toward a resolution.

Leaders of both parties said they wanted to avoid the first federal closure since 1996, but their public appearances seemed aimed more at affixing blame for the impasse.

House Speaker John Boehner (R., Ohio) urged Senate leaders to pass legislation that the Republican-controlled House had approved early Sunday morning, which would fund the government through mid-December. But that prospect was remote, as the House legislation included a one-year delay of the new federal health law that Democrats have vowed to reject, as well as a repeal of the new law’s tax on medical devices.

Democrats say Mr. Boehner himself could end the stalemate quickly by asking the House to pass the Senate plan for extending federal funding, which includes no provisions aimed at the health law.

Such a move would anger conservatives in Mr. Boehner’s ranks and likely materialize only at the last minute, after keeping up the fight against the health law to the end. But it would bring relief to the many Republicans who fear that the public would hand their party the largest share of blame for a shutdown.

You can read the entire Wall Street Journal piece here.

 Favorite weekend’s New Yorker cartoons:

Latest tip:

+ Never, ever put your phone number on a magazine, theater subscription or anything charity or political cause.  If they insist, give them the wrong one. You don’t want phone calls in the middle of dinner. Trust me.

Harry Newton who had a wonderful weekend. All the kids came into town for Anne’s Baby Shower. Everyone is healthy, happy and remarkably tolerant of my bad jokes. Miracles can happen.

My “big” strategy of buying when there’s temporary blood in the street has worked with BA and LL, so far. Maybe something temporary (the Shutdown squabble) will produce some bargains today?