Hedgie Daivd Tepper tells the Robin Hood Investors Conference yesterday:
It’s really hard today. People are afraid to admit how stupid they are. I know how stupid I am.
Japan is in recession — two negative GDP quarters. China is slowing. Europe has its terrorism and refuge crisis.
America’s big manufacturers are not doing well.
Things look awful — or great. Remember the old adage:
Buy when there’s blood in the street.
Cramer got it right last night. He said “there were forces of weaknesses abounding everywhere.”
He listed some stock drops. Glance over his list. It freaked me out.
US Steel (X) down 63% for the year.
AK Steel (AKS) down 56%
Freeport McMoran (FCX) down 62%
Caterpillar (CAT) down 23%
Cummins (CMI) down 31%
Joy Global (JOY) down 66%
Console Energy (CNX) down 76%
Criss Natural down 62%
Alcoa down 48%
Deere (DE) down 16%
Archer Daniels (ADM) down 26%
Mosaic (MOS) down 28%
Potash (POT) down 42%
Intrepid Potash (IPI) down 74%
Macys (M) down 41%
Nordstrom (JWN) down 25%
Chicos (CHS) down 25%
Bed Bath and Beyond down 30%
Urban Outfitters (URBN) down 40%
Gap (GPS) down 40%
Whole Foods (WFM) 40%
Walmart (WMT) down 33%
Kinder Morgan (KMI) down 43%
Marathon (MRO) down 37%
Range Resources (RRC) down 35%
Ultra Petroleum (UPL) down 62%
Southwestern Energy (SWN) down 57%
Good news: I don’t own much, any longer. But I do own Home Depot. And it beat last night. It was up big after hours last night.
If I can’t be intelligent, at least I can be lucky.
I don’t know if any (or all) of Cramer’s list is worth buying, selling or ignoring.
I’m still digesting what I heard at Robin Hood yesterday. Top buys: the gaming industry. Activision (ACTI). Spirit Airlines (SAVE) and maybe Consol Energy (CNX).
Top short: Wayfair and the Chinese currency, the reminbi (or however it’s spelled). It’s overvalued by as much as 20%.
Why I hate biotech. Take Clovis. Please do. Oleg Nodelman pounded the table for Clovis at last year’s Robin Hood. Then, this week, a small catastrophe:
Bloomberg reported
Clovis Oncology had the perfect story. Then it went dark.
Clovis had two promising late-stage cancer drugs speeding to market with breakthrough therapy designs it owned entirely. Its most advanced drug, rocilitenib, for non-small-cell lung cancer, seemed possibly headed for FDA approval this year. Goldman Sachs, meanwhile, had anointed Clovis a takeover target, music to biotech investors’ ears. Morgan Stanley suggested Amgen might be interested, noting how few companies had such promising, late-stage assets. Clovis’ founder-CEO had already managed to get a company bought for billions by a rival.
The only questions seemed to be around how soon Clovis’ cancer drug would come to market and how much share it would take from AstraZeneca’s recently approved competitor. It seemed, in the world of biotech, safe.
That made it all the more painful for Clovis investors when its stock price plunged 69 percent in a morning on Monday.
Clovis released data on Monday showing rocilitenib’s response rate — the percentage of patients whose cancer shrinks or is cleared after getting the drug — was far, far worse than what early, unconfirmed data suggested. The response rate plunged from 67 percent to 28 percent for a smaller dose and 35 percent for a larger one. AstraZeneca’s direct competitor Tagrisso, approved just last week, has a confirmed response rate about double that.
In other words, rocilitenib is, as Bloomberg Intelligence analyst Asthika Goonewardene puts it, “toast.”
You can read Blooomberg’s full gruesome story here.
A really good deal. A “credit card” from Amazon:
Excellent benefits — especially if you’re as addicted to Amazon as much as I am.
Get your Amazon prime store card here.
Oih veh
A Jewish businessman in Chicago sent his son to Israel for a year to absorb the culture.
When the son returned, he said, “Papa, I had a great time in Israel. By the way, I converted to Christianity.”
“Oy vey,” said the father. “What have I done?” He took his problem to his best friend, Ike.
“Ike,” he said, “I sent my son to Israel, and he came home a Christian. What can I do?”
“Funny you should ask,” said Ike. “I too, sent my son to Israel, and he also came home a Christian. Perhaps we should go see the rabbi.”
So they did, and they explained their problem to the rabbi.
“Funny you should ask,” said the rabbi. “I, too, sent my son to Israel, and he also came home a Christian. What is happening to our young people?”
And so they all prayed, telling the Lord about their sons. As they finished their prayer, a voice came from the heavens:
“Funny you should ask,” said the Voice. “I, too, sent my Son to Israel . . .”
Harry Newton who biked to the Grand Hyatt this morning. Nothing better for the soul than biking three miles in gloroius fall weather.
Today at Robin Hood should be really good. See you tomorrow.
I trust you read the Amazon credit card fine print very carefully…things like 26% interest for those people who do not pay in full every month and if the extended terms payment is not paid in full, withing the time frame, it back charges the 26% from the date of purchase. Also, to get your “free” credit card it would appear you must subscribe to Amazon Prime at $99.00 per year.