In Search of the Perfect Investment

Things are awful unemployment-wise.

This morning, the Labor Department reported historically bad employment, showing 20.5 million jobs lost last month as the nation locked down against the coronavirus. We’re up to a total of 33 million unemployed. The jobless rate soared to 14.7% — the highest level since the Great Depression of the 1930s. The highest monthly job loss before this was 2 million in 1945, as the nation began to demobilize after World War II.

Things are, however, great in the stock market. It keeps going up.

There are three reasons: Don’t fight the Fed. Big listed companies are doing remarkably well — with obvious exceptions. Third, the market looks nine months ahead. By then, we’ll be back to “normal.” And pigs will fly.

This is a remarkable chart. It’s the last year in the three major indices — Dow, Nasdaq and S&P500. The strongest bounceback has been the Nasdaq. Those tech companies are best at working at home. It’s V shaped!

Three schools from here:

+ 1. It’s going to keep going up for all the happy reasons so far.

+ 2. It will flat line from here until earnings season in July.

+ 3. It will tank again once second (i.e. present) quarter earnings results are reported. They’ll be miserable.

I watched Norwegian Cruiselines CEO last night on Cramer. He was impressive. I put a small low limit buy order in today and snagged a few. I bought a few Zoom this morning.

I’m dubious. In my heart of hearts, I think we’re done for the year. And the only stocks that will do well from here are ultra-hot stocks benefiting from stay-at-home.

I’m feeling uncertain–because of which I write below.

I’ll be more certain on Monday.

How long will I stay quarantined in the boonies?

If everyone followed the simple rules — wear a face mask, stay six feet apart, don’t do stupid — this thing would be over quickly.

But it won’t be. I’m learning about a new class of moron. They’re called virus deniers.

  + There’s private outdoor park nearby. It’s open to the public. It’s been packed with cars. There’s plenty of acreage but people prefer to cluster in groups. The local Sheriff is understandably, getting antsy. That’s in New York.

+ This is in Connecticut:

+ Planes are packed with people, many not wearing masks. Are we breeding a new class of moron? Is stupidity contagious?

We’ll watch anything?

Even something called Death Diving. Aka “modern” belly flopping. It’s really stupid, but fun and harmless.

Cramer has a list of stocks he likes.

He’s made a sort of index which he calls  his ‘Mad Covid-19 Index’. Many of them I like also. Click here.

Given the virus deniers and the crazies out there who believe they’re invulnerable, it’s time for all of us to be even more wary.

I have sanitizers in my tennis bag, on the lobby table, in the kitchen. I’ve washed my hands so often I’ve worn them dry.

I badly need a haircut. This is me in my robe (aka dressing gown) and sporting a big bump on cheek where something nasty bit me.

Ah the joys of country living. I hate selfies. They’re backward and look weird. The second picture is courtesy Snapchat. Should have bought Snapchat at $6, not $18 where it is now.

  

See you Monday. Harry Newton