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A new Black Swan event for the markets — Donald J. Trump has the virus

As if this wasn’t predictable, Trump has the virus. He’s got a fever and a cough.

He’s irresponsible with his own life. He’s irresponsible with ours as well. He’s downplayed the threat of the Pandemic since January/February and has refused to wear a mask. What did he fail to understand? The word pandemic?

Imagine the pandemonium in the White House, where masks were not popular (his obsession) and now everyone’s getting sick. Nice place to work! I prefer Columbia County, NY. See below.

The market has reacted mildly, so far losing only a small portion of its previous few days gains. I suspect that the uncertainty of a sick President who is at high risk — his age, his obesity, his underlying medical conditions (pre-diabetes) and his bone spurs — could put a dampener on the market for the next few weeks.

This is tech stock heavy Nasdaq this year. It could still close the year with a gain. I have my fingers crossed. (That “strategy” works better for tennis than for the stockmarket.)

Later today might be a good time to pick up more shares in Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, Microsoft and Adobe.

Please be ultra careful this Fall

As if you hadn’t figured this out, this Fall is going to be ultra-dangerous.

The United States could be entering its “most dangerous season” for coronavirus infections, Dr. Scott Gottlieb warned Tuesday, as the colder weather brings more people indoors.

“Kids are back in school, kids are back in college campuses. Work is trying to restart. People are becoming more complacent and tired of the restrictions, and so all of those conditions are going to set up a Fall and winter that, I think, is going to create a lot of risk,” he added.

Please get your winter flu shot, asap. They have an extra-strong one for old geysers, like me — if you can find the shot.

Why Donald’s personal guarantees don’t mean anything

We know Trump has personally guaranteed at least $400 million of loans. There are reports that it’s actually over $1 billion.

There’s an old story:

   + If you default on a loan of of $1 million to the bank, you’re in trouble.

   + If you default on a loan of $100 million to the bank, the bank is in trouble.

   + If you default on a loan of a billion dollars to Russia, then we’re all in trouble.

What I learned about FedEx shipping

   + Envelopes get regularly shredded by the sorting machines in Memphis. Your stuff gets spilled out and lost. You’ll never get it back. Send your stuff in strong box. I just lost a month’s mail sent form my home in New York City to upstate New York. Thank you FedEx.

   + You’ll never get your shipping fee back. They owe me $34.

   + You’ll never get to speak to anyone who can help. I’m sick of “talking” to FedEx robots. Don’t even waste your time sitting on eternity hold.

   + I’m now preferring UPS. They’re more careful with my stuff.

The French Tennis Open is on The Tennis Channel

The color of the court is the same as our first tree. It’s uncanny.

The sun’s out in Columbia County, NY

Drive north from New York City this weekend, there’s plenty of Fall foliage. Or leaf-peeping as they call it in Vermont, where it’s even more spectacular. No one knows why this year’s Fall foliage is so good. But most locals say it’s the best they’ve ever seen — even what happened at a daughter’s wedding 30+ years ago.

My daughter Claire loves goldenrod. She’ll start sneezing the moment she sees this field.

It looks like today’s drop is getting serious, soon to wipe out yesterday’s handsome gain. Maybe not, as I look again.

What did we say about “volatility?” It’s with us and it’s extreme. Maybe we’ll get a stimulus bill? There are millions of poor Americans who need the help. Please.

Don’t panic. Don’t sell into today’s decline. That is an egregiously wrong strategy. (I like the word egregious.)

Buy your favorite stock cheap.

See you Monday. I’m going off to play my 202nd game of tennis since we escaped New York City in March.

Want the world’s best, fastest, most reliable business laptop? Click here. I have two of them. They’re really good. I love them. They have one left. Not cheap, but worth every penny.

Harry Newton