One of my erstwhile money managers earned 20% in 2010. But I bailed when he was down 10%+. Dumb me.
My most conservative manager was up a lousy 4%. A third money manager was up 14.68%.
Their jobs are protect my capital. On the money I manage myself I was up about 9%.
In contrast the Dow was up 11.02%, the S&P 12.78% and NASDAQ up 16.91%.
I would have done better with an index fund that mirrored the NASDAQ, i.e. the QQQQ. Surprise. Surprise.
The key is to stick with it. But who knew. Look at the first half of 2010, then compare it with the second half. Who knew. Hard not to read the tea leaves and anticipate it going further down.
Oh, to work for the state.
In Illinois, state government workers pay nothing for health-care benefits and many can retire as early as 50 or 55 with a pension that pays 80% of the average salary of their final four working years (a reason many seek heavy overtime in the last few years).
The situation is similar in most places.
Local politicians seeking election did deals with local unions. And the result is a ripoff of local taxpayers, like you and me.
Every New Year for the past 26, Bryon Wien issues his “Ten Surprises.” This year, the ten surprises is actually 20 surprises. Maybe that’s one of the “surprises.”
His surprise number 18 is “18. A major state fails to pay interest on a municipal bond issue because of a lack of funds, causing havoc in the municipal bond market.”
The other 19 surprises are not surprises, but extensions of what’s going on, i.e. things are getting better.
Wien also believes oil will rise to $115 a barrel. That will put major brakes on the economy’s recovery. I suspect that the price of oil is once again being manipulated. The rising price is not demand/supply related. There’s plenty of oil in the world. World economies are simply not recovering that fast. I’m not playing the oil game. And I suspect you don’t also.For more, on oil and commodity manipulation, read my favorite book, Griftopia by Matt Taibbi.
You can read all 20 of Bryon Wien’s “Surprises” here.
New York thought 24 inches was bad. Try 20 meters in the Japanese Alps.
This week’s favorite New Yorker cartoons. First, the sickest:
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Harry Newton who has “discovered” GORO as another way to play gold. Apparently smart money is into this gold produccer big-time. It’s called Gold Resource Corporation. More on it tomorrow.
“In Illinois, state government workers pay nothing for health-care benefits and many can retire as early as 50 or 55 with a pension that pays 80% of the average salary of their final four working years (a reason many seek heavy overtime in the last few years).” HARRY I'M DISAPPOINTED! You've used wiggle words to describe a specific problem. Vagaries/exaggerations are the tool of charlatans and fools. For example: You'll make up to 500% with my new investment plan. If you'd like to cite specific examples of pension problem 911 would be a GREAT place to start. Lots of heroic police/firefighters retired shortly after on a inflated overtime based pension. Not a topic anyone wants to broach except as a general criticism. Compare government pensions to our leaders plans or stock options at a successful small cap. Life is a crap shoot and when a government workers job security/retirement becomes desirable listening to folks who CHOSE other options seems like sour grapes. I retired with a 30+ year postal pension which after deductions pays $1,600+ per month. I'd trade you places tomorrow. Just thank God and feel fortunate……
Harry, I was up 17.76% in 2010 on accounts from Vanguard and Fidelity, mutual funds, both taxable and IRA's.
In 2009, was up 19.1%, same accounts.
Now if I just had your millions to invest!!!!!!!!!!!!