Today is one year since the Covid low in the stock market, which ended the fastest bear market ever and ushered in the fastest bull market.
Down and up fast.
The S&P 500 has gained 76% since March 23 last year.
Here’s the year, shown in a two year chart (for affect):
If you were stupid (like me) and panicked — because we were having a pandemic and the economy was going to hell and a handbasket, (and hence the market would too), you missed out on some of the fastest, juiciest, easiest gains of all times.
The moral of this story was to lock your portfolio in stone and go play tennis, or sleep, or watch Netflix or anything .. but mess with what you had.
Today we’re in a different world. We’re all vaccinated (or soon will be). We’re itching to get out and play. Visit the kids. Give the hotels and airlines all our money. And pray that our stocks will keep booming.
I like that thinking. Though with my luck, this upcoming recovering positive economy will lead to a negative stockmarket . Last time it was, of course, the reverse. There’s a StockMarket God out here who loves being perverse. Since many of his subjects are masochistic, it all makes sense (??).
Today the stockmarket gurus are talking “rotation.” That’s a fancy word for we’re working less from home (less Zoom) and more at the office, and we’ll be traveling. Disney will open its parks. We’ll schlepp the kids there.
I’ve been moving more of our portfolio to obvious “rotation” stocks, like Disney, Southwest Airlines (LUV) and the JETS ETF. It’s been working. These days I think Disney is more like a tech stock — because of its huge success in streaming — than a “rotation travel” stock.
I had this idea that Doggy stocks would be great since everyone is getting one, like this one (called Frisbee) which son Michael just bought his kids (my grandkids).
Here are two doggie stocks that I own and that aren’t doing brilliantly, yet.
I keep coming back to tech, since it remains an oasis of solid growth — sales (and sometimes earnings).
I see charts like this one. Big growth in the year, with some recent pullback. Call it the Rotation Pullback.
Which suggests that, if you like PayPal, (which I do), I should put in some low limit orders — around $230, and hope I snag some.
My recent small buys include tech stocks, RBLX, ASML, and NTDOY. And my rotation ETF called JETS, which I think is a good way to play the recovery of the airlines. My most remarkable rotation stock is MO, which is still yielding a handsome 6.6%.
These two are the reasons I desperately want to get on a plane and go to Portland, Oregon. Two grandchildren, Eleanor and Peter, photographed by the magnificent camera on their father’s iPhone 12 Pro max.
Vaccination is not a Get Out Jail Free card
I read:
+ Being vaccinated doesn’t mean you are immune. It means you have a better chance of protection, and lower chance of ending up in hospital
+ Vaccines are still best paired with safeguards such as masks and distancing-just as rain boots and jackets would help buffer someone in a storm.
+ Sometimes you never recover. Something called “long covid” sticks around for months. Read more here.
Though I have my two shots (Moderna), I still suffer the mask and keeping away from people. I own a few shares in Moderna. Look at this chart. Put a limit buy in at $120. You never know. You might get lucky.
Where the skin gets cancer
+ The face.
+ The ears.
+ The nose.
+ The head
+ The back of your hands.
Cover them. Put sunscreen on.
Sillies
That’s it. I’m going to play tennis –outside. My iPhone says it will be 65. It never lies — in contrast to the “safety” features on Susan’s relatively new Mercedes.
See you tomorrow. when I’ll unleash the first of my world-famous Passover “jokes.” Passover starts Saturday evening.
— Harry Newton
