Skip to content

Simple advice

Don’t look.

Don’t panic.

Don’t sell.

This, too, will pass.

The fourth quarter is typically a good time. for stocks.

The S&P 500 has averaged gains of 3.9% in the fourth quarter and was up four out of every five years since World War II (which was a long time ago).

In our portfolio, Tesla, Ford, Lowes, Chevron, Trex  and Ottertail are up today.

The rest? Well, they’re not doing so good. Some doing worse than others. Not sure why.

The good news: We’re still alive. And we’re not one of the 700,000 dead in the U.S. from covid.

What we have lost today and last week is only on paper. We’ve had downdrafts before — two this year — and we’ve recovered quickly.

There are “solutions.” Read. Walk. Exercise. Nap.

Call someone and tell them how much you love them. Hint: Only call people you know.

We took two grandkids apple picking on Saturday. Apple picking is an expensive way to buy apples. Morever, my tummy hurts. Too much apple.

From this weekend’s Economist

From the article:

On July 1st, the 100th anniversary of the party’s founding, Mr Xi declared that China had become a “moderately prosperous society in all respects”. Inside the party, and among the public, many want to know when it will become fairer. Mr Xi’s report next year is unlikely to go into specifics about taxes and government spending. But to judge from officials’ recent emphasis on the common-prosperity theme, it will feature prominently in what is sure to be a state-of-the-party address filled with chest-thumping references to China’s “resurrection” as a global power that will be modern, rich and strong by 2049.

The pace of recent events suggests Mr Xi is in a hurry. He has clamped down not only on big business but also on the entertainment sector. Ideological education in schools has been reinforced: children as young as six are being taught about “Xi Jinping Thought”.

The Economist used this chart to illustrate its article. The first shows the gruesome loss in the share prices of Chinese stocks. (I keep warning. Don’t touch Chinese stocks, for now.)

The Economist piece concludes:

Mr Xi is already remoulding society in a way that neo-Maoists endorse. Recent events have taken place against a broader backdrop of more-visible involvement by the party in people’s everyday lives. Especially since the pandemic began, it has become omnipresent in neighbourhoods in a way not seen since the 1980s. Grassroots party members are the chief enforcers of quarantines and controllers of people’s movements. In the past two years, several central-level documents have promoted the establishment of “moral review councils” in the countryside. These are made up of party worthies and, sometimes, police officers who sit in judgment on fellow villagers’ behaviour and publicly shame those who have committed offences such as littering or failing to look after an elderly parent. Some urban neighbourhoods have set up similar “moral clinics”.

Assuming Mr Xi keeps his job as China’s leader at least until 2027, if not longer, control will be his watchword, not disruption. (Harry’s emphasis.) “East, west, south, north and centre; the party leads everything,” Mr Xi keeps insisting. Without ideological discipline, he says, its grip will be dangerously weakened. But it is Xi Jinping Thought, not that of Mao or Marx, that will really count. He will interpret it as he pleases. (The unpredictability bothers me — Harry.)

I am totally fascinated by China. I cannot believe what Xi is doing. It’s predictably bad.

You can read the entire piece here.

Favorite cartoons

Tech stocks are trying for a little bounce this afternoon (3:33 PM).


That’s it for today. — Harry Newton