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Value or Growth? Which one will make us the most in 2021?

The latest theory is that investors have lost their faith in high-flying, fast-growing, money-losing companies. Like Unity Software, Affirm, Crowdstrike, Peloton, Coupa Software, Okta, Cloudflare and Zscaler. (That’s not a complete list.)

As I write this, I can see many of my friends doing a victory jig around their living room.

There is an expression in Yiddish to “hack mir nicht in schenick.” It sort of means to not bang me in the head with your pleasures, or madnesses.

Which is what my value friends have been doing for the last year as they shied away from Apple, Amazon, Google, Netflix and Facebook in favor of Walmart, Disney, MasterCard, Visa, Costco, Procter & Gamble, Blackstone, AT&T, Verizon and General Motors.

Many have seen many of their stocks tumble in recent months.

Who will do better in 2021 — growth or value? Me or them?

I suspect the answer depends on three things:

+ Allocation. If you stuck a big percentage of your portfolio into Apple, Amazon, Nvidia, Tesla and Google, I’m suspecting you’ll come out way ahead.

+ Your own stop loss rule. I’ve beg everyone to sell stocks when they fall a certain %. Many many erstwhile-favorite growth stocks have crashed, never to come back. The classic case is PayPal. I’m out of it completely — but I will admit I got out too late.

Lately I wanted to see what about PayPal made me fall in love with it. Lately I delved into what PayPal actually does. The more I delved the less I could find anything that excited me or seemed unique or proprietary. There’s a lot of hype by management and a lot of numbers. But nothing major creative. Except the hype. Anyway, I’m glad I’m out.

+ The upcoming Santa Claus Rally. If we get it in my stocks, I’ll look like a genius. Today I’m in Puking Mode. Down 1.78%. Yuch.

Today I’m happy I also own syndicated residential real estate. There’s a hot market for that stuff. And yesterday I received a handsome wire, as a result of a property recently sold to someone who should not have paid that much.

The booster shot

You really need the booster shot to protect yourself against omicron.

The good news is that the booster works against omicron. Researchers from Pfizer-BionNTech concluded that. Click here.

The best news. The new West Side Story movie opens tomorrow

Here’s the trailer.

Here’s a clip of Spielberg talking about the movie. He obviously has the same love for West Side Story I do.

West Side Story played a hugely important role in building my love for America. I wangled myself into being the official photographer of the stage play in Australia. I saw the show 12 times. One night the actors insisted I be ready with camera, film and long distance lens for the end of Officer Krupke. They were going to do something special for me (never done before on stage). Would I please photograph the moment they said “Dear Officer Krupke, F*ck you.” I did. And the resulting black and white photograph sold like crazy. What lovely people.

Dying industries and Professions

Yesterday we talked about:

+ Car dealerships. Electric cars need no service — just new tires and windshield wipers. No oil changes, no filter changes, no nothing. etc. Also everyone is buying online. So who needs dealerships with pricey lots?

+ City taxi owner. Uber and Lyft killed those guys. The value of a New York City medallion has plummeted. It used to be gold.

+ Highway toll collector. In our neck of the woods, you don’t even need an EZ-Pass, their cameras read your license plate and send you a paper bill.

My readers today chimed in with

+  Landline phone company. Remember them?

+ DVD movie rental store.

+ TV repair store.

+ A retailer of shoes. I love buying shoes and boots. I gave up long ago on stores. They never have my size nor model. But Zappos, Nike, eBay, Skechers and Google do. They all will take my shoes back — shipping free! I have a pair going back today to Skechers. I like my new Nikes.

Got any more dying industries? I’ve got a big prize for the most interesting, upcoming dead industry.

I love this

Anyone out there own a Tesla? How do you like driving it? My son loves his and has written a screed on it. That’s for tomorrow.

See you then. Thank you Bob for all the help. I’ll beat you you this year, I hope. — Harry Newton