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Tomorrow’s Black Swan events. And what to do about them.

Upcoming Black Swan events:

+ Russia invades Ukraine, grabs a good chunk of Eastern Ukraine.  We do nothing. Read Wikipedia on the city Donetsk. Click here.

+ China grabs Taiwan. We rattles our sabers, do nothing. Semiconductor stocks really plummet.

+ Iran sets off a nuclear bomb test. Ho. Hum.

+ Turkey, China and others default on their dollar loan obligations. Whoever loaned them American dollars needs their head read.

Biden is perceived as weak and unwilling to deploy the American military. I would, in a heartbeat.

If any of these things happen, stock prices will fall and present a hugely good buying opportunity.

Make sure you have some cash on hand.

Read this short article today: Pearl Harbor and the Capacity for Surprise. Click here.

Insurance inflation

From Matt Wood, best insurance agent in Columbia County, NY:

We are seeing premium increases around 6-8% due to inflation, increased construction costs, and  higher expenses of fixing cars.

Windows 11 stuff

+ Windows is a teeny bit faster than Windows 10. Not significant.

+ It needs more juice to run. Which means you may need a new computer.

+ It offers few benefits any of the computer press can find.

+ It looks different. Getting used to it will frustrate you.

+ Getting it set up and used to how it works is a waste of your time.

+ Worse, some of your favorite software may not work with it. I don’t know which.

I don’t get paid enough to waste my time testing Windows 11, when my Windows 10 works so well.

Best latest tips

+ Google Docs are a great way of sharing ideas with yourself and your friends. It’s amazing to watch as you type on one laptop, and have your brilliance appear in the cloud and then appear instantly on another machine close by. My son, Michael, the genius, turned me onto this free service. He’s good on free. I taught him to be cheap. It pisses his sister off.

+ Emails arrive at my laptop with teeny, tiny type — as a result of them being formatted for cellphones. Solution: Ctrl-scroll the wheel on your Logitech mouse. Bingo, your email type will enlarge. Magic.

+ My ConEdison electricity bills are now higher than when I was  actually in residence and using the lights. Go figure.

Today I finally got ConEdison to stop sending me monthly paper bills, which did nothing but piss me off. Now they’re sending me electronic bills. Every third month I get a box of Kleenexes to cry into.

Which business would you not like to own?

Guess what appeared across the road from my favorite Chatham breakfast place, Main Street Goodness?

What was funny? I had just had breakfast where they took my iPhone for payment — Apple Pay. No cash. My local gas station prefers my iPhone. My tennis courts take bank wires. Who wants to handle the the dirty, green covid-ridden obsolete paper our government prints? Who carries cash any longer? I don’t even carry credit cards.

Try some other businesses (and jobs) that are being destroyed by technology:

+ Car dealerships. Electric cars need no service — just new tires and windshield wipers. No oil changes, no filter changes, no nothing. etc.

+ City taxi owner. Uber and Lyft killed those guys. The value of a New York City medallion has plummeted. It used to be gold.

+ Highway toll collector. In our neck of the woods, you don’t even need an EZ-Pass, their cameras read your license plate and send you a bill.

What else? I’m running a contest. Email me your suggestions and I’ll send you a super surprise.

If you do it quickly, I’ll double the offer. Harry at TechnologyInvestor dot com.

How is residential real estate doing in Manhattan?

In two words: Bloody well. My second favorite broker, Barbara Evans-Butler, emailed me:

November was a record breaking month and the beat goes on! Sales activity, market wide, is booming. The Luxury Market surged. The $4-10 million, range continued to rebound and the contracts signed in the $10-20 million range have been off the charts for co-ops, condos, and townhouses. Condo sales continue to lead the surge and new development sales citywide are on fire. The supply of property continues to shrink.

BUYERS are BUYING and sense their window of opportunity is closing. SELLERS’ discounts between asking and sales price have narrowed to 4% and many deals are at ask or better!  The Manhattan Real Estate market forecast: forget 2020, the luxury market in 2021 to date achieved double the luxury sales of 2019! The stock market hiccuped with Omicron but is now flourishing. That augurs well for 2022!

OK, she can’t spell. But, most people in real estate can’t.

Don’t give this to your wife

Amazon describes it:

  • Age-defying – Using a mixture of natural ingredients including caffeine, vitamin C, and avocado oil, our cream will wake your skin up with a rich source of antioxidants and important nutrients.
  • Soothe damaged skin – Apply cream over puffiness and darkness commonly associated with dark circles around the eye area.

Maybe it works. Maybe it doesn’t. But what a fantastic idea. I’m trying it. You won’t recognize me soon. My bags will have magically disappeared. I’ll be handsome, again.  Only $20. Click here.

This may be the greatest thing since blue suede shoes — which we discussed yesterday. Click here. 

I’m in a good mood when the market is going up, as it is today.

Favorite latest cartoons

And my favorite dietary advice:

In about two hours, I’ll have my list of preferred stocks updated. The list is in the third column on the web site.

If you have any friends, please tell them about my blog. The only money I get from this blog is the pennies Google pays me if you click on some of the ads in the left and right hand columns on the web site. Hence, the more clickers, the more money they send me. I don’t get a commission from the products I recommend. I tried that but Amazon rejected me.

See you tomorrow. — Harry Newton