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Still falling, despite being “oversold.” Oil is down. Inflation is ebbing. My shorts are working. How do you value stocks?

Cramer believes the bear market has ended.

Last night he had a bunch of persuasive charts showing stocks were oversold and we’re about to see a bull market. Click here.

I like charts.

There are a zillion bad things affecting our economy — inflation, the Fed’s rising interest rates, war in Ukraine, supply chain, China’s housing mess (Click here), the cratering U.S. housing market, etc. And there are still many serious hedge fund managers predicting doom, gloom and a recession in 2023 (next year).

The stockmarket has its own craziness. And I’m more cautious today with my shorts than now that I’ve seen Cramer. Click here.

Yesterday was strongly up. My shorts lost. But my VGT and VTI more than made up. I think that’s called “hedging.”

The only short that made me a few shekels yesterday was Apple.

It got hit by downgrades, including one headlined “Apple: Be Fearful.” Something about ailing iPhone 14 sales.

I took myself to a couple of Apple stores yesterday — including the Fifth Avenue store, the world’s largest, employing 800 Apple salespeople, and open 24/7.

I tried to buy the newest Series 8 Apple Watch. No luck. The place was mobbed with a babble of languages I couldn’t understand. Wealthy tourists.

I don’t know what they were all buying in the Apple Store. But I do know that no one was in that store to look. They were buying. And buying and buying.

Me? I’m too impatient to stand in line.

They told me politely to go “on line.”

I was looking at my Watch List for the price/earnings ratios of stocks:

I don’t think Salesforce (CRM) is worth 280 P/E. Or ZS is worth a negative P/E. It’s losing $2.67 each share which sells at $168.

But people believe in stocks for the same reasons they believe in their god.

Our beliefs are sold to us. They better the sales pitch the more firm our beliefs — until something awful comes along — like a bear market.

I’m the worst. I substitute enthusiasm for intelligence.

I fell in love with Nvidia. Its technology is awesome. Look what happened to the stock. Me and my big enthusiasm.

What protects me from myself (my enthusiasm) is my stop loss rules — Get out when I’m down 15%. They’ve protected me from “hot” stocks like Coinbase, Robinhood, Tesla, Salesforce, Amazon, Facebook, etc.

For now, my shorts today are protecting me from the losses on my longs —  VGT and VTI.

I suspect this market has a ways to go before everyone who is skittish (a la Cramer theory) has sold their shares and the buyers step in — like they did yesterday.

All bear market have bull days.

Inflation easing (?)

The supply chain is easing. I can now buy the Wilson tennis balls I like.

But inflation, as measured by tennis balls, is not easing.

The price of Wilson balls is twice as high as it was a year ago.

But, the good news: Wilson throws in free shipping. Whoopee.

It’s still cheaper to play tennis than golf.

The most important commodity in the inflation world is oil. And it’s falling.

Here’s WTI oil over the last year . It’s down to $82.34. It was over $120 a few months ago. That’s a 30% reduction.

Your passport 

You can renew your U.S. passport on line. Click here,  here and here 

Your fifth Covid shot

Figure 6 months after your fourth one to get the fifth one.

CVS shines. To sign up for an appointment, click here.

I’m getting my fifth shot next Monday. It’s the bivalent one — good for the new Covid variations.

I got my flu shot yesterday.

Keys to staying alive

+ Don’t do stupid. Watch that last step going down.

+ Stay current on all your shots.

+ Look both ways twice before you move. I spent yesterday in Manhattan. I saw cars speeding through red lights. What blew me away was a long, double bus speeding up to go through a red light. I was freaked.

+ Keep moving. Bicycling and tennis are two great ways to keep moving. Fast walking is good also. Listening to podcasts while you walk is great.

+ My friend Francis swears by his new diet — no bread, no desert. I works. He’s lost 8 lbs. He looks healthier. He can run faster on the tennis court.

+ Drink lots of water. I cramped last night. I drunk oodles of water. The cramp went away.

+ Stress is bad for your health. Two solutions: napping and mulling.

+ If something goes wrong inside you , insist on a catscan (also called a CT scan). Do not rely on your doctor’s idea of what is going wrong. Get the CT scan. My friend is  life-long radiologist. He is amazed at how many doctors diagnoses are proven wrong when the CT scan is checked — 10 minutes later. There’s a a good piece on CT scans here.

+ My 10 mg daily 10 mg statin is working. My bad cholesterol is way down. My blood pressure came in yesterday at 117/70. I’m going to live to 80. Oops, passed that in June. I’m on the way to 90 Henry Kissinger is 99 and still can’t lose his horrible accent.

I bought a Fujitsu ScanSnap iX1600 scanner.

This thing scans everything, including the K-1s which some idiots keep sending me on paper.

No desk should be without this scanner. $449 and worth every penny and more. Click here.

I’m in New York City for a couple of days

+ The place is crawling (booming?) with tourists.

+ Many erstwhile empty shops are being rented. Those that are not suffer less from a dearth of prospective tenants than from landlords who refuse to lower their rents from pre-pandemic days.

+ There are still banks on every corner. Why? When everyone does their banking (like me) on-line. Banks see their retail stores as “advertising.”

Favorite music — Gershwin’s Rhapsody in Blue

Click on the picture or click here.

Two favorite cartoons

Biggest advice

Never give any vendor or politician you correct phone number.

They’ll text you for life. I can’t figure out how to unsubscribe from texts.

Anyone got any ideas?

My grandchildren, their friends and their father 

God bless Apple’s family photostream. It yields all sorts of nuggets. That’s a father being “clever.”

I visited the Microsoft store just down the road from Apple’s mobbed store. Microsoft’s store was empty, had nothing interesting on display and lied to me about Office.

See you soon. Harry Newton