Some believe that Iran’s present regime will load a nuke on a long-range ballistic missile and send it to Israel and Europe.
They have the missile to reach Israel. They don’t have the nuke. They don’t have the missile to reach Paris. They need to make one twice as powerful as the one they have to reach Paris or three times to New York.
They don’t have the bomb, yet.
Many countries have nukes, including Israel. But only one country has used it — the U.S.
Today Iran has three powerful weapons — the ability to close the Strait of Hormuz, weaponry to shoot down warplanes and around a million armed military in Iran and in their proxies (Hizbollah, Hamas, Houthis, etc.). All willing to reign havoc.
It’s hard for me to believe that hatred of Jews, of Israel and of America is so strong among their theocratic (religious?) society.
But we and Israel have been fighting their hatred ever since Khomeini grabbed power in 1979 — 47 years ago.
The U.S. now has a regime that clearly intends to do more than all the many previous paper agreements and sanctions of the past.
Despite our bombings of the past month, the consensus is Advantage Iran:
With our ineffective bombing, our frustration has boiled over into President Trump’s latest weekend social media post:
Tuesday is the day after tomorrow.
Since none of us can do anything about The War, we need to focus on managing our lives, our families and our portfolios. Friends are eyeing non-US passports, putting money abroad, selling into cash. Clearly cash is useful.
Today’s New York Times investment column by Jeff Sommer notes:
President Trump’s from-the-gut decision-making, combined with Iran’s resilient ability to close shipping lanes and wreak damage on Gulf energy production, means that the range of possibilities for this war is still staggeringly broad.
I asked Perplexity how stock markets fared during the Vietnam War:
The Dow Jones gained about 43% in total over the course of U.S. involvement, or roughly 5% annualized – positive but below the long-run historical average. In 1965, when U.S. troops arrived in force, the Dow closed the year up 10%.
The Takeaway from Perplexity:
The CFA Institute notes that the Vietnam War was actually the one exception among major U.S. wars where stock returns underperformed the long-run average — though they were still positive. The war itself wasn’t the killer; it was the inflation it helped unleash, the fiscal overstretch of financing both “guns and butter” (the Great Society programs alongside military spending), and the Fed’s subsequent policy mistakes that made the 1966-1982 period one of the worst in modern market history for real returns.
I don’t think President Trump wants a Vietnam War. That war which actually lasted 20 years for the full war, or 8 years for direct U.S. combat.
I’m not sanquine about Trump’s prospects for cowering the Iranians. Bullies like to bully. I’m guessing Tuesday won’t be pleasant.. I suspect the best he’ll get from his latest threat is an open Strait of Hormuz, and some noddings about ceasing their nuclear ambitions. Maybe they’ll even “admit” that the U.S. and Israel destroyed their stockpile, etc.
This will give Trump a “victory.” The market will rise. And we’ll be happy until the next October 7 attack some years from now.
The sad part of it all is Iranians are truly wonderful people. Among immigrant groups in America — there’s a huge Iranian community in L.A. — they are among the most successful, best educated, wealthiest. In Iran there’s a huge desire to have a free American style democracy and a high standard of living. For most of April they’ve had no Internet and little eletricity.
As their inflation has soared they keep printing new money. This is ten million rials. It’s worth about $7.
I’ve been to Iran as a tourist. It’s a gorgeous place. I’d love to revisit.
Meantime, my stock portfolio is balanced between energy, precious metals, defense and companies benefiting by AI — I like Google and Amazon. You can see my revised list in the right column on my web site. Click here.
I’m actually up a little year to date. But the ride has not been plesant since I tend to watch it daily. My middle name is masochism.
Favorite cartoons
The secret to a long marriage, from happy readers
+ We care for each other.
+ We laugh together every day.
+ We try to not do the things the other doesn’t like.
And my favorite:
+ We don’t own a gun.
See you tomorrow. — Harry Newton
