In Search of the Perfect Investment

When things go up ultra-fast, they tend to go down ultra-fast. Gold’s drop yesterday was huge.

Am I concerned? Yes and no. I’ll watch carefully. Any more sharp down and I’ll kick out. But, for now, I’m holding. I hear from some readers that they’re pleased for the drop. Gold’s on sale. Good time to buy.

This is Goldman Sachs stock. It looks like dog do-do and it should.

Now you know why Buffett insisted on a 10% dividend on his investment in GS. Even at last night’s reduced price, GS still only yields a miserable 1.27% (which suggests it has further to fall?).

As everyone knows, I invested in a couple of GS funds, one a private equity fund and one a distress hedge fund thingee. Yesterday I received notice of the successful sale of three companies held in the private equity fund. Here are the numbers:

Total proceeds: $38,000,000 less Goldman’s management fee of $8,101,901. Hence $29,898,099 will be distributed to investors in the fund.

Do the math.  That means Goldman took 21.3% in fees. Didn’t I hear Blankfein say that his company was going to focus more on customers and less on gambling? Now I know what he means — take the money from the customers.

Charging incoming wire fees. Once banks were banks. then in the early 2000s they became gamblers, not banks. Now they’ve now become banks again. Hence they focus on the customer. I now get charged $15 or so for each incoming wire — no matter how small. But there is a solution. It’s something called “direct deposit or ACH,” which I think stands for Automatic Clearing House. If you get regular dividends from someone,  ask them to set you up on ACH. The upside is it’s free. The downside is that the money flows  overnight, not the same day as in a wire transfer.

The hearing aid test. Boy, are doctors getting aggressive (or desperate)? My doc cleans my ear of wax every six months or so. He tries to convince me I need tests. I usually resist, since I don’t like ripping off Medicare. Yesterday he told me I could not come back to him unless I did a hearing test. It was necessary to test if my brain had a tumor. It was his responsibility as my doctor. I succumbed. We did the test. He can charge Medicare more. I don’t have a tumor. And the world goes on.

Government math:
If the U.S. government was a family, they would be making $58,000 a year, would be spending $75,000 a year, and would have $327,000 of credit card debt.  The recently announced “big” spending cuts would reduce spending to $72,000 a year.

Short Sears? When was the last time you went into a Sears? I bet it was a totally dismal experience. I bet SHLd is going lower.

Dont believe me? Read this recent Reuters story:

August 18, 2011
Discounts at Sears Holding Fail to Raise Sales

The Sears Holdings Corporation posted a quarterly loss on Thursday as it failed to stop a prolonged sales decline despite offering more discounts, which hurt profit margins.

Stock in the company, the parent of the Sears department stores and the Kmart discount chain, sank to its lowest level in two years. The company’s shares closed down 8.2 percent, at $55.23.

Separately, Gap reported quarterly profit on Thursday that beat analyst forecasts even as sales fell at stores open at least a year, known as same-store sales.

Sales at Sears Holdings have fallen every year since 2005, when the investor Edward S. Lampert formed the company by merging the two chains.

Gary Balter, an analyst at Credit Suisse, said that essentially, the message from consumers to Sears was “we will shop there, but not at the prices you wish to charge as we won’t pay full price for substandard service and unwelcoming physical facilities.”

Analysts have criticized Sears for relying too heavily on cost-cutting to raise profit, rather than upgrading stores and improving customer service.

It faces tough competition from retailers including Home Depot, Lowes, Wal-Mart Stores, Target and Best Buy, and it has been losing market share in appliances and apparel.

Higher costs also hurt Sears Holdings, which said it would lay off about 250 employees in support and field roles. Two months ago, the retailer laid off 700 employees who worked in the appliance sections of its Kmart stores.

It is also closing 29 stores and seven product repair centers, while converting 14 Sears Grand stores to Kmarts. The company said there could be more job cuts from those actions.

In the second quarter, Sears sales fell 1.2 percent to $10.3 billion; analysts had expected $10.5 billion. Sales at stores in the United States open at least a year fell 0.7 percent, with those at the namesake stores down 1.2 percent and Kmart flat.

The company blamed the lackluster sales numbers on weak demand for consumer electronics at both Sears and Kmart.

It took bigger discounts to increase the sales of appliances, apparel and home goods. Sears will add exclusive apparel brands with TV celebrities like the Kardashians and Sophia Vergara.

The net loss at Sears Holdings widened to $146 million, or $1.37 a share, from $39 million, or 35 cents a share, a year earlier. Excluding one-time items, the loss was $1.13 a share. Three analysts expected an average loss of 64 cents, according to Thomson Reuters.

Gap, meanwhile, said its fiscal second-quarter net income was $189 million, or 35 cents a share, versus $234 million, or 36 cents a share, a year earlier. Net sales rose 2 percent to $3.39 billion. Same-store sales fell 2 percent.

Gap was expected to make 33 cents a share on revenue of $3.34 billion, according to Thomson Reuters. The company recently forecast fiscal second-quarter profit of 33 to 34 cents a share and already disclosed the 2 percent decline in same-store sales.

The company has lost about a quarter of its market value this year as investors have questioned its ability to increase sales after several quarters of losing market share.

Some of the company’s merchandise has missed fashion trends, forcing markdowns to move inventory, especially in the main Gap brand stores.

Same-store sales at Gap North America fell 3 percent in the quarter, while international same-store sales fell 4 percent. That compares to a 3 percent increase a year ago.

Steve Jobs is Apple CEO no more. Which is bad. But will stay on as Chairman. Which is good. It’s a sad day for us all — both as Apple shareholders and Apple customers.  I love Steve.

Let the heavy initial selling subside. Monitor it carefully. Then sell your Apple stock.  Steve’s replacement is no-Steve Jobs. I once saw Timothy Cook perform  on stage presenting and answering questions. It gave boredom a whole new meaning. It’s over for Apple, though not initially. There are Steve Jobs new products in the pipeline — like the iPhone5. But after that, there’s no one with Steve’s abilities. Certainly not Timothy Cook.

My favorite Steve Jobs quote is from today’s New York Times:

His design decisions, Mr. Jobs explained, were shaped by his understanding of both technology and popular culture. His own study and intuition, not focus groups, were his guide.

When a reporter asked what market research went into the iPad, Mr. Jobs replied: “None. It’s not the consumers’ job to know what they want.”

Amen, Steve. Spoken like a true entrepreneur.

BREAKING NEWS: President Obama has just confirmed that the DC earthquake occurred on a rare and obscure fault-line, apparently known as “Bush’s Fault”. Obama also announced that the Secret Service and Maxine Waters continue an investigation of the quake’s suspicious ties to the Tea Party. Conservatives however have proven that it was caused by the founding fathers rolling over in their graves.

Overcoming Depression. An Australian solution.
After suffering from severe depression, my wife and I decided to commit suicide yesterday. Strangely enough after she killed herself, I started to feel a lot better and thought.

“What the heck. I’ll try to make a go of it!”

(You can change this around.)

Harry Newton who is contemplating his iPhone4 next to his Android phone. They both work. But Steve’s iPhone is such a pleasure to use. Thank you Steve.