Skip to content
 

There is good news and there is bad news.

I’m posting this blog just as the market closed its early trading at 1:00 PM on Friday November 23, 2018.

I’m not sanguine. I’m 64% in cash in my main Fidelity account. That’s the highest I’ve been in years.

Little is working — with the significant exceptions of LADR and UNH.

However, there are stocks that have been working, e.g. Procter and Gamble (PG), Clorox (CLX). Both are up strongly since their lows in May.

And there is a site called BarChart which shows new highs for the year. Here’s today’s list:

For more, click here.

But there is also bad news.

This comes from a reader called gerryb, who emails:

I found this post from a seasoned investor interesting:

“I did a lot of reading yest morn before the folks got up and the other folks came over. I don’t like much of what I read as I’m not short…but actually long for a bounce.

I mentioned oil already. But don’t you find it interesting airlines and cruise lines are no where near their highs with oil getting crushed?

Don’t you find it interesting that with mortgage rates only at 5pct, housing is falling off the face of the earth both for new and existing houses? article in bloomberg today discusses it.

Don’t you find it interesting that retail stocks are not acting better with a) lower oil and b)strong employment?

Don’t you find it interesting that with rates rising and the int rate spread positive that banks have been in a year long downtrend and can’t get out of their own way?

I can go on and on with these ‘puzzles’…but I’ll just say, forget sentiment, forget fundamentals, forget forecasts, forget what you ‘think you know’ about what next year or the year after looks like..

Doesn’t this all strike you as obvious new bear market action? it does me, for I think we started it in Oct 2018 and by my reckonings, it will be a nasty one until Jerome goes thru 2.5pct rate decreases back to zero and THEN opens up his check book for another 10-20trillion fiat units…enough to buy all of that sh*tty debt that has been created in this cycle…corporate, govt, municipal.

I for one am battening the hatches, the Fed,ECB et all just blew up the biggest bubble of them all..the ‘everything’ bubble this time..bonds, stocks, real estate, oil infrastructure.

Now I have to start laying out shorts or puts in those things that will go down 90 pct..things like NFLX[and other momo favs with 10’s of billions in mkt cap that have, unlike NFLX, never seen a dime of earnings] . I think there’s gonna be few places to hide this time…will gold be one of them? hmmm, maybe..maybe not..for a while as liquidity gets sucked out of assets world wide.

That’s my view, and I know most here disagree..which is ok. But I survived 2000 and 2008, and profited a little, but this time I want to profit A LOT.

Net net , I’m working under the assumption the bear has begun and the ONLY thing that will change my mind is price…getting back to and exceeding Oct 2018 highs.

nothing else will convince me I’m wrong. trade on folks.”

My takeaway is that now is a good time to be scaling into gold mining etf’s like gdx, gdxj, asa and keeping them for several years.

Stuff to read

+ Five Takeaways From the New York Times big New China Project. Click here.

Trump Denies ‘Financial Interests’ in Saudi Arabia – History Tells a Different Story. Click here.  

My bank  still hasn’t found my $100,000 which they lost

Meantime, all the execs have gone on vacation, reinforcing my opinion of bankers.

Calling to report a motorcycle accident

Caller: Hello Police? I’m calling to report a motorcycle accident.

911: Are there any injuries?

Caller: Yes. All 10 passengers on the motorcycle.

911: You do know that making a fake call to 911 is a criminal offense?

Caller: If you are not believing me, please watch the video I am sending you.

Older posts you may have missed

I’m not posting every day. Some days I have nothing to say. Here are my most recent columns:

What I learned – if anything – from my recent huge tech stock losses. Nov 21. Click here.

+ Blood is flowing. Is now the right time to jump back in? Nov 20. Click here.

+ I lied. Not every asset is crashing. Nov 19. Click here. 

+ Another day poorer. But not deeper in debt. Nov 15. Click here.

+Asset prices in free-fall: Stocks. Housing. Commodities. Nov 13, Click here.

+ Too much money. Too many opportunities. Hence today’s stomach-churning investment scene. Nov 8. Click here.

HarryNewton
Harry Newton, who had a Thanksgiving dinner that couldn’t be beat and worked it all off in tennis this morning.

  • J. Browser

    Harry, you are dead wrong to predict that Netflix will drop 90%. That’s just crazy. And anytime there’s tremendous negativity, like now, it’s almost always a contrarian sign. You oughta know that now. I’m long tech stocks, retail stocks, airlines, Bitcoin and auction rate securities.