In Search of the Perfect Investment

Instinct works. Procrastinating doesn’t. Every time I’ve delayed on a decision when my gut said “Do it” I lost.

Item: I fired two money managers this year. They argued for a little time. I gave it to them. My instinct said “Fire them now.” By the time I did, they lost me even more money.

I’m staggered at how many firms I deal with who take so long to make a decision. I’m nagging The Economist about doing hand delivery in New York City, as BusinessWeek and other magazines and newspapers do. They’re dickering around. The Tennis Channel is messing around with Verizon.  It’s two months and I still can’t watch The Tennis Channel on Verizon. I thank the Lord for my decision not to invest in The Tennis Channel. Their CEO, Ken Solomon, is off Planet X — a common problem with entrepreneurs, most of whom, like Ken, don’t listen.

Be in control of your own destiny and make decisions based on your gut. The speed of your decision making will more than make up for the few wrong decisions you make.

Trust me. Speed trumps research.

On money managers: Long-term they all suck. Investors flocked to Madoff because he was consistent. You know where that ended.

Neat bit of politicking. The Greek prime minister called off the referendum (which he knew would say NO) after his opposition leader said YES.

Bought  some muni bonds yesterday. New York Water. Got 2.32% to a 2013 call and a yield to maturity of 4.70%.  It’s a long bond — 23 years. But I have plenty of shorter ones. I’m hoping they won’t call it. But even if they do, I’m earning more (remember it’s triple tax free) than leaving the money  in a money market fund. The one reason I like a laddered bond portfolio — bonds coming to maturity one year after another — is that it gives me an opportunity to buy bonds with higher coupons — should interest rates ever rise.

Online trading. I use Fidelity. It’s $7.95 a buy or a sell, no matter how big.

Barclays reiterated its overweight on Annaly. Barclays analyst says, “Overall we view the results as positive because we believe the more conservative balance sheet management should increase the sustainability of the dividend. While we are revising down our estimates in coming quarters to adjust for lower leverage and asset yields, we continue to view the company as capable of generating mid-teens returns. With the shares trading down to a nearly 15% dividend yield and 1.0x book vs. an historic multiple closer to 1.1x, we recommend adding to positions based on the continued compelling total return opportunity.”

Bad Elf is a neat EPS product. Plug this $99 device in to the bottom of your iPad, iPhone or iTouch and you significantly enchance its GPS ability.

It works with and enhances virtually every GPS app available for the Apple devices — which include apps for biking, running, navigating, etc. You can even sit on a plane flying across the Atlantic and watch your minute-by-minute progress. Where you are. What speed you’re traveling at. For more, click here.

Another reason to love Mr. Corzine. From today’s Wall Street Journal (this is mindblowing):

For the past two years, MF Global Holdings Ltd. may have disguised its debt levels to investors by temporarily slashing the debt it was carrying before publicly reporting its finances each quarter.

The activity, referred to in the financial industry as “window dressing,” suggests that the troubled financial firm was shouldering more risk and using more borrowed funds to facilitate its trading than investors could easily detect from the firm’s regulatory filings.

Really prescient.  S&P lowered its  rating on MF Global to D from BBB — after MF Global filed for bankruptcy.

I gather they still can’t find some of the money investors deposited with MF Global. And now this revelation of Window Dressing.  Corzine will swing. I wonder whatever got into his tiny brain? Corzine has now resigned and said he won’t seek his $12 million severance — which he wasn’t legally entitled to, anyway.

MF Global — another reason to make you feel really warm about dealing with Wall Street.

Cameras and computers. Experiences.

+ Canon G12 is still the best point and shoot. Nikon has a new one called the Nikon V1. It has a great eye-level viewfinderthat shows 100% of what you’re shooting and its shutter lag is almost instaneous — not as fastas a DSLR, but very lose. The Nikon V1 also has interchangable lenses, but they stick out, making the camera not pocketable — which the Canon G12 is. The G12 is also much, much cheaper.

+ SSDs (Solid State Drives) still rock bigtime. Probably the only pure play on SSDs is OCZ.

My friend says  the stock has been heavily shorted. My friend believes the short squeeze is happening. Over 17 million shares — or 36% of the public float — has been sold short. The company doesn’t seem to be doing very well financially , though it does make great products.

Disturbing statistic: 48% of Americans get some sort of government entitlement.

Wonderful quote:

I’m a great optimistic, Otherwise, I would commit suicide in view of the kind of the governments we have today. — Marc Faber publisher and editor of The Gloom, Boom and Doom

Pakistan’s population is a gigantic 175 millon. That includes 40 million children who don’t attend school and about 40 million who don’t have a job but would like to.

Favorite recent New Yorker cartoons.

Harry Newton who didn’t get any Groupon stock and won’t be buying any in the aftermarket, even though it will probably rise… and then fall. I’d rather play tennis than gamble with the sliver offering that Groupon is. “Sliver” means Wall Street is only offering a tiny part of Groupon’s outstanding shares. The idea being to force institutions to pay up for the shares they want — but didn’t all get on the public offering.

A much better deal:

Two Good Ol’ Boys from Southern Illinois were sittin’ on the front porch drinking beer when a large truck hauling sod went by.
“Dat’s whut I’m a-gonna do if I win the lottery,” said Bubba.
“Do what?” asked Ray.
“Send my grass out to be mowed.”